Last week, senior Jordanian and Syrian defense
officials held their first public talks in a decade. The talks came following a
major offensive by the Syrian military to retake the last rebel stronghold in
southern Syria and after they were able to reestablish control over the border
city of Daraa. Statements released by both sides said the talks focused on the
situation at the joint border, terrorism, and smuggling. While the Jordanian
public may hold mixed views about the prospect of improved relations with
Syria, it may nonetheless be necessary for Jordan and consistent with the
pragmatism that regularly defines Jordanian foreign policy.
اضافة اعلان
Jordanian security institutions need to have
effective security partnerships with their counterparts in neighboring countries,
both to manage legitimate security concerns such as smuggling and the presence
of non-state actors (both terrorist and criminal) and as a prerequisite to
improvements on broader areas such as the movement of goods and people across
borders. At the height of the Syrian conflict, there were reportedly 1,200
rebel groups fighting the Syrian regime, dozens to hundreds of which were in
southern Syria. These groups posed serious risks to Jordan’s national security
and prompted Jordan to achieve one of its most impressive diplomatic feats to
date: Reaching a ceasefire agreement in southern Syria with the US and Russia
as cosignatories. With the Syrian military now in full control of southern
Syria for the first time in a decade, these talks should not come as a surprise.
Nor should it be surprising if further normalcy in relations occurs in due
course, including discussions on water and electricity. This does not mean that
Jordan is rushing to turn the page with Syria or that Jordanians need to
overlook this bloody chapter in Syria’s history or whitewash it. It simply
means an adjustment to the current political realities.
Ultimately, the reconstitution of the Syrian state and
its institutions is in the interests of Jordan and by contrast a persistently
and endemically fragile Syria is not. A weakened Syria allows for outside
influence, undermines the independence of Syrian decision making and puts the
interest of outsiders over those of the Syrian people. Jordan previously witnessed
this scenario with another neighboring country, Iraq, and had to pay the price
of losing a key economic partner and suffer the consequences of insecurity,
lawlessness, and outside meddling there.
Jordan’s international and regional partners may
also hold mixed views about the recent developments witnessed in
Jordanian-Syrian relations. Sanctions imposed by some of them, including those
imposed by the US in the form of the 2019 Caesar Act, could be a major obstacle
to the return of normalcy with Syria, especially when it comes to trade. The
question is whether Jordan’s international and regional partners will also
recognize the need to improve the status quo. The recent agreement between
Egypt, Jordan, and Syria to transfer Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity to
Lebanon through Jordan and Syria respectively, is a good case in point. It
shows the potential benefits of pragmatism at play.
Reengaging with Syria may seem increasingly inevitable
but surely it will be a long, gradual and measured process and plagued with
many spoilers along the way.
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