A Reuters poll showed that economic growth forecasts for Egypt remained generally stable over the past three months, while inflation forecasts were revised upward, as the economy proved more resilient against the Middle East war than initially feared.
اضافة اعلان
According to the median forecast of 15 economists polled by Reuters between July 7 and 16, the Egyptian economy grew by 4.8% in the fiscal year ending in June, marking a slight increase from April's forecast of 4.6%.
Experts predicted that growth will slow to 4.5% in the 2026-2027 fiscal year before accelerating to 5.3% in 2027-2028, compared to forecasts of 4.6% and 5.5%, respectively, in the previous poll. Projections also indicated a growth rate of 5.5% in the 2028-2029 fiscal year.
Official data showed that the economy beat expectations in the January–March quarter, with preliminary estimates pointing to a GDP growth of 5%, surpassing earlier forecasts despite supply chain disruptions and surging oil prices resulting from the US-Israeli war on Iran.
In May, the Central Bank projected real GDP growth to average around 5% for the fiscal year ending in June, up from the 4.9% forecast a month earlier.
Hard currency sources did not decline, as remittances from Egyptians working abroad surged by 31.2% to reach approximately $43.1 billion during the July–May period of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, up from around $32.8 billion the previous year, while tourism revenues and Suez Canal receipts also recovered.
Foreign exchange reserves rose to $55 billion by the end of June.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in June that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt on two reviews, which could unlock $1.6 billion in funding, describing the war's impact on the country's economy as "relatively contained."
Nevertheless, the poll predicted average inflation to hit 13.5% in 2026-2027, an upward revision from April's forecast of 12%, before dropping to 10.4% in 2027-2028 and 8.6% in 2028-2029.
The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt fell to 14.3% in June.
Analysts surveyed expected the overnight lending rate to reach 16% by the end of the 2026-2027 fiscal year, down from the 17% forecast three months ago, compared to the current rate of 20%.
Experts predicted the Egyptian pound's exchange rate to reach 49 per dollar by the end of 2026-2027, compared to 51.5 in the previous forecast. However, three analysts expected it to drop to an average of 49.68 pounds per dollar by the end of June 2028, and to 50.49 pounds per dollar by the end of June 2029.
"Egypt's economy is still in an expansionary phase of the business cycle and has weathered the external shock better than feared in March," said Dominik Bartos, assistant economist at Moody's Analytics, though he warned that uncertainty would continue to weigh on exports and investment.
Reuters
