Amman — The attack targeting Hamoud Church in Karak cannot be viewed separately from the state of turmoil gripping the region, where regional conflicts overlap and multiple threats emerge, ranging from Iranian proxies and the policies of the occupying Israeli entity to extremist groups and armed organizations operating across the region.
Against this backdrop, Jordan faces security challenges that extend beyond its borders. This requires distinguishing between the broader regional context that may have influenced the terrorist attack on a church in a peaceful village in southern Jordan, and the findings of investigations into the attackers, their backgrounds and any parties that may be linked to them.
Experts say the challenge is not limited to uncovering the circumstances of the crime, but also extends to protecting domestic stability and preventing the repercussions of regional conflicts from penetrating Jordan’s national fabric.
An Attack Beyond Inflicting Casualties
Political analyst and strategic expert Dr. Munther Al-Hawarat said the crime in Karak cannot be separated from the chaos and conflicts affecting the region. He stressed that it is still too early to accuse any particular party, given the complexities of the regional security landscape and the overlapping interests of armed actors.
Al-Hawarat noted that Jordan faces a complex regional security environment involving the activities of armed Iranian proxies, Israeli policies toward Palestinians, and extremist groups waiting for opportunities to target Jordan and undermine its stability. He also pointed to the presence of armed factions operating beyond formal state control in Jordan’s surroundings, each pursuing its own objectives.
He said the nature of security threats has changed, with the challenge no longer limited to confronting the army of another state. Countries are increasingly facing militias and armed groups operating alongside or outside official authorities, with the ability to infiltrate borders, threaten security and destabilize not only Jordan but countries across the region.
Al-Hawarat said the Karak attack may have gone beyond the objective of causing casualties to an attempt to shock Jordanian society, undermine the Kingdom’s stability and unity, and provoke discord among Jordanians.
He stressed that Jordan’s cohesion and ability to preserve its stability have made it an obstacle to multiple parties, potentially making it a target for more than one actor rather than a single party.
He added that the objectives of these parties may converge around weakening Jordan even if they are otherwise opposed or hostile to one another. They do not necessarily need to agree with each other for their interests to converge on weakening the Kingdom during this turbulent period.
Al-Hawarat stressed the importance of looking beyond identifying the perpetrators, despite the need to establish their identities and enforce the law against them. Investigators should also examine who may be behind them, who seeks to spread chaos, and whether other parties may have used them to pursue broader objectives.
He said the region is going through a period of changing regional equations, requiring vigilance against attempts to transfer instability into Jordan and against methods that actors seeking to reshape regional balances of power may employ.
Al-Hawarat emphasized that protecting Jordan and safeguarding its internal front have become not only a security necessity but also a strategic imperative to protect the Kingdom from sliding into dangers experienced by other regional states and to prevent it from becoming a tool serving external agendas.
He expressed optimism that the attack could ultimately have the opposite effect for those seeking to incite division, undermine Jordanian unity or cast doubt on state institutions.
He said the response following the terrorist attack reflected a cohesive Jordanian society and a state capable of acting swiftly through an institutional system operating under unified central decision-making.
He noted that this cohesion and rapid response are important indicators, but the next phase requires firm handling of the attack’s domestic and regional repercussions to protect Jordan from the risks surrounding other countries in the region and prevent it from being exploited to serve agendas that do not support its stability.
Extremist Ideas
Dr. Badr Al-Madi, professor of political sociology at the German Jordanian University, said understanding the background to the attack on Hamoud Church requires examining interconnected local, regional and international factors.
He said the targeting of society and its institutions is one aspect that should be considered when assessing what happened.
Al-Madi explained that the international political environment can sometimes create conditions conducive to the spread of extremist ideas that may lead to destruction and violence.
He pointed to developments surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran, which may lead some individuals to perceive the United States as targeting a Muslim country, while Iran seeks to present itself as a state defending Islam.
He said such perceptions can influence the way some people understand regional conflicts. He added that remnants of the “terrorist ISIS ideology” and extremist ideas remain factors that may contribute to this type of thinking.
Al-Madi also pointed to statements by far-right movements in the United States and Europe that sometimes attack Islam or mock Muslims, Arabs and the Palestinian cause. He said such rhetoric may act as a motivating factor for individuals who adopt extremist or misleading ideas.
He stressed that these factors do not justify attributing responsibility to society as a whole. Rather, they concern individuals who may be influenced by them, while their behavior does not necessarily represent their social environment.
He emphasized the importance of regulating public behavior and strengthening social awareness, while recognizing that extremist ideas can emerge among individuals at different times, even in societies with high levels of cohesion and resilience.
Al-Madi said Jordanian society has strong social immunity against extremist ideas. Attempts by radical individuals to challenge this cohesion may be linked to their rejection of the position taken by the Jordanian state and its security institutions toward extremism.
He added that such attempts do not reflect a shift in society’s position, but rather reveal the continued presence of extremist ideas among some individuals.
Al-Madi noted that Jordan has made significant progress in education, educational reform, media development and strengthening intellectual and cultural awareness. He said these efforts have contributed to building a more cohesive society capable of dealing with extremist ideas.
However, he warned that Jordan cannot be isolated from the open space created by modern communication technologies, whether politically or digitally. Ideas and rhetoric can now reach different segments of society easily, rapidly and at relatively low cost, creating continuing challenges for educational, media and cultural institutions.
He stressed that confronting extremism requires continued efforts to strengthen public awareness, protect individuals against misinformation and sustain reforms in education, media and culture in order to preserve social cohesion and limit the ability of extremist ideas to penetrate society or influence its members.
Security Investigations
Security expert Dr. Omar Al-Raddad said determining whether those who carried out the attack on Hamoud Church were linked to any organizations or groups remains dependent on the findings of security and intelligence investigations.
He stressed the need to await the results of investigations following the arrest of those involved and avoid asserting the existence of organizational links before evidence becomes available.
Al-Raddad said what happened in Karak cannot be separated from the regional context and the circumstances surrounding Jordan and the wider region. He said the Kingdom faces targeting from the occupying Israeli entity and Iran and its proxies, and that these efforts may take different forms in which the interests of both sides could overlap.
He added that terrorist and extremist groups, including ISIS and Al-Qaeda, represent a threat to Jordan.
He said the broader circumstances and environments surrounding the region have created conditions that extremist actors could exploit to carry out such operations. He pointed to hate speech inside Jordan from groups supportive of Iran or those adopting positions that question the Jordanian state as one factor that warrants monitoring when assessing the circumstances surrounding the attack.
Al-Raddad noted that these groups and political and ideological currents draw on both religious and secular references, making it necessary to distinguish between ideological and political positions and any potential organizational links.
He stressed that it is currently impossible to establish a direct organizational connection between the attackers and extremist organizations, or determine whether they adhere to extremist ideology, without direct organizational links.
He said: “They cannot be linked to the occupying entity or Iranian proxies before the intelligence investigation results are announced, which will clarify the background of the operation and any parties potentially connected to it.”
He expected security agencies to have identified or recognized the perpetrators following the attack, stressing that the findings of the investigation will provide the basis for determining their affiliations and clarifying the circumstances of the operation.
A Crime Incompatible With Jordanian Culture
Dr. Khaled Shneikat, president of the Jordanian Political Science Association, described the attack on Hamoud Church as horrific and brutal.
He stressed that Karak is known for coexistence and tolerance, saying this image is not merely a courtesy but a reality experienced by its residents and by Jordanians across the Kingdom.
Shneikat said it would be difficult to consider the ideology behind the crime purely a local product. He suggested that it may be linked to the state of chaos and instability in neighboring countries and the destruction and power vacuums that have allowed various actors to spread extremist ideas and distorted interpretations of religion.
He stressed that Islam does not justify such acts, noting that more than 1,400 years of Muslim history do not provide justification for attacks on churches. He added that recent developments in the region raise questions about the possibility of manipulation or interference by foreign intelligence agencies.
Shneikat pointed to the possibility that some perpetrators or individuals involved may have been deceived or exposed to false and dangerous information and ideas that are incompatible with Jordanian society’s culture and values.
He stressed that such ideas do not represent Jordanian society or reflect its identity.
He explained that extremist groups operate according to agendas based on destruction and destabilization, exploiting chaos and instability to achieve their objectives. The turbulent regional environment, he said, provides such groups with opportunities to operate and implement their plans.
Shneikat said targeting Jordan’s internal front and attempting to weaken its cohesion may be among the objectives pursued by parties contributing to instability in the region.
He noted that Jordan has overcome numerous challenges and plots in a turbulent regional environment, stressing that preserving the unity of Jordanian society remains a fundamental factor in confronting attempts to undermine the Kingdom’s security and stability.
Source: Al-Ghad
