An
airliner over Dubai’s coast, a single-engine helicopter, and a Japan-Abu Dhabi
flight: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has proven capable of powering air
travel. But can supply rise and cost fall fast enough to make SAF a major part
of the aviation industry’s journey to net-zero emissions?
اضافة اعلان
While aviation is responsible for about 2
percent of global greenhouse gas
emissions, a small but fast-growing amount — it could be two to four times
higher by 2050. Its impact on global warming is higher, about 3.5 percent,
because of the formation of high-altitude condensation trails —
or “contrails” — which trap heat.
Environmentalists
have proposed avoiding air travel in favor of high-speed rail. This has a
place, but with demand for flights likely to rise, low-carbon options are
needed.
The
Middle East must take curbs on aviation emissions particularly seriously. It
has become a global flight hub, with several regional countries — notably the UAE but also Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey — betting big on
economic diversity through mega-airports, super-connector airlines, and
spin-offs, from tourism to cargo. That will not work if future air travel is
restricted.
The
2050 target
The
International Air Transport Association (IATA) resolved in October 2021 that
members would reach net-zero
carbon emissions by 2050. Its strategy
includes improved efficiency, new hydrogen- and battery-powered planes, and
offsets, such as funding tree planting or the direct removal of atmospheric
carbon dioxide. Low-carbon aviation fuel (LCAF) carefully selects the origin
and refining of crude oil to reduce life-cycle emissions by at least 10
percent.
The Middle East must take curbs on aviation emissions particularly seriously. It has become a global flight hub, with several regional countries.,, betting big on economic diversity through mega-airports, super-connector airlines, and spin-offs
But
the heavy lifting — 65 percent of total reductions — hinges on SAF. Planes
today overwhelmingly run on kerosene made from petroleum. By contrast, SAF is
derived from non-fossil sources, either leftovers, such as cooking fat, other
biomass or waste materials, or custom-grown feedstocks including sugar,
alcohols, and palm oil.
Carbon
taken up by these biological materials as they grow is released when the fuel
is burned, making it carbon-neutral in principle. With some development, these
will yield an 80 percent reduction in life-cycle emissions. Research also
suggests that SAF
reduces contrails.
Pioneering
flights
SAF
is a drop-in fuel — meaning it can be used in conventional jet engines without
modification, blended with kerosene or on its own. In October, Etihad flew from
Tokyo’s Narita International Airport to Abu Dhabi using a 40 percent SAF blend.
In January, Emirates Airlines made the first demonstration flight in the MENA
region with one of two Boeing 777 engines running
entirely on SAF. In February, the
US aerospace company Bell Textron made the first single-engine
helicopter flight using only
SAF.
Challenges
to a SAF rollout
Worldwide
production of SAF tripled in 2022, but the total estimate of between 300
million and 450 million liters is far short of the 2050 annual target of
449 billion liters. That is equivalent to nearly 8 million barrels
per day of oil and almost a thousand times current output.
Fuel costs depend on oil prices, but may be around a third of an airline’s total costs — implying running solely on SAF would hugely inflate ticket prices.
SAF
is also expensive. When oil prices spiked last year, it still cost about twice
as much as conventional jet fuel, and it is often said to be up to four times
more costly. Fuel costs depend on oil prices, but may be around a third of an
airline’s total costs — implying running solely on SAF would hugely inflate
ticket prices.
Costs
will come down as the industry scales up, SAF becomes more widely available,
and conversion technologies improve. But overall usable volume is also limited
by feedstock. Suitable wastes are limited, and are sought by other industries
looking to decarbonize, such as shipping, ground transport, and bioplastics.
Growing
dedicated crops can also damage the environment through fertilizer use and
water consumption while competing with food production and the preservation of
forests and other biodiverse areas.
Global
biofuels output in 2021, mostly for road use, was just 1.7 million barrels per
day — a number that would have to quadruple to meet 2050’s SAF needs.
Searching
for a regional solution
Given
the challenge to a major part of its economic model, it is crucial the MENA
region finds solutions for climate-neutral aviation. Technology is part of the
solution. In the short term, it will help to scale up SAF use and provide
reliable logistical solutions.
As an emerging hub for clean hydrogen production, it would be of great interest in MENA to commercialize hydrogen-based routes to SAF.
As
an emerging hub for clean hydrogen production, it would be of great interest in
MENA to commercialize hydrogen-based routes to SAF. Developing innovative SAF
production, LCAF, and direct air capture of carbon dioxide fits well with its
national oil companies’ skill sets.
In
January, Abu Dhabi’s Masdar, TotalEnergies, Siemens Energy, and Marubeni teamed
up to work on conversion
of methanol to jet fuel. Other more
advanced pathways to synthetic jet fuels, beginning with sustainably produced
hydrogen or innovative biological pathways such as algae, could sidestep the
problems of land use. Hydrogen-based SAF has been technically certified, but
the costs of hydrogen production and conversion must fall substantially.
Just
as important is to create business models and incentives to reward
environmentally responsible aviation. Many companies have internal net-zero
carbon goals, so they can be offered SAF-based flights or appropriate offsets
such as reliable bio-sequestration or carbon capture, at a suitable
premium.
Private
jets, often with just a few wealthy passengers, could be required to use SAF or
other low-carbon options — creating an early adopter luxury market.
The
Middle East can wait for punitive policies from Europe, or it can ensure the
future of its national carriers as frequent yet responsible fliers.
Robin
M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of “The
Myth of the Oil Crisis.” Twitter: @robinenergyCopyright: Syndication Bureau.
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