It has been over a
hundred and sixty days and over 31,000 confirmed Palestinian lives lost since
the onset of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and questions still loom large
regarding the conditions by which Israel would consider its military objectives
met. Israeli leaders have publicly stated that they would not end the military
campaign until they achieve victory. This begs the question: when would that be
and what can we expect after that? There are no clear answers, yet some guesses
can be made.
اضافة اعلان
The political
fortunes of Israel’s Prime Minister may be a major factor in determining when
Israel’s military campaign will end. Netanyahu wants to avoid his day of
reckoning with the Israeli public and could accordingly seek to draw out the
conflict as long as possible. The military campaign in Gaza could end up being
an ongoing, low-level conflict, for a much longer time than expected. This
would serve to keep Israeli society and Israeli politics on a war footing and
effectively limit the political space for any questions regarding Netanyahu’s
responsibility for the intelligence and military failures of October 7 and his
strategic failures in reaching viable political solutions with Palestinians.
Stretching out the conflict also serves to wait out the US Administration which
will become fully fixated on the presidential elections soon. Perhaps in a
year, we would still be hearing stories about Israel targeting a civilian
building because intelligence suggested the presence of Hamas operatives there.
Alternately, it could be that Netanyahu is just Israel’s “fall guy” and that he
will look to maximize Israel’s gains with the knowledge that he will be
eventually scapegoated once international pressure on Israel or the US
Administration peaks. Ultimately, the campaign could only come to an end once
the US pressures the Israeli government to stop or Israeli politics do.
The political fortunes of Israel’s Prime Minister may be a major factor in determining when Israel’s military campaign will end. Netanyahu wants to avoid his day of reckoning with the Israeli public and could accordingly seek to draw out the conflict as long as possible. The military campaign in Gaza could end up being an ongoing, low-level conflict, for a much longer time than expected.
As to the question
of what could come after that, the picture looks bleak. Israel will likely
block any attempt to reconstruct Gaza to its former self, maintain a strong
security presence in Gaza, and dot it with illegal settlements to displace its
residents and tighten its control.
Israeli plans to
forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt seem to have been scratched
indefinitely because it would be akin to a declaration of war on Egypt and
possibly Jordan, the latter of whom would consider this a precursor to the
future forcible displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank to Jordan. The
mass forced displacement of Palestinians has long been a redline issue for both
countries as well as for the international community. People tend to think of
this in its historical context, the mass and abrupt displacement of
Palestinians that took place in 1948 and 1967. Such fears may belong to a
different era because of their political implausibility today. What is a more
likely scenario, however, is the gradual displacement of Gazans to countries
other the Egypt or Jordan in a way that is below the threshold of what is
considered blatant or forcible. It could be argued that Israel has long pursued
such a tactic in the West Bank, where Palestinians are routinely harassed
through property seizures, settler violence, and restrictions on their movement
such that they are voluntarily seeking to emigrate. Sometimes, this type of
migration is facilitated by the West, either unknowingly or through active
collusion. The Christian population of the West Bank today is a good case in
point; it has dwindled to a paltry 2% of Jerusalem’s population for example
because their emigration to Western countries has been facilitated by Christian
organizations in the West as well as their governments. Israel will also seek
to “cantonize” Gaza in the same way that Palestinian communities in the West
Bank have become, scattered in between illegal Israeli settlements so that it
can “better manage” Palestinians in small enclaves and pockets. Given Israel’s
destruction of Gaza, any attempt to reconstruct it will be conditioned on its
geographic division in a way that would allow Israel to better “security
manage” it. Gaza will effectively become unlivable and conditions so unbearable
and miserable that its residents would themselves look for ways to leave.
Israeli plans to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt seem to have been scratched indefinitely because it would be akin to a declaration of war on Egypt and possibly Jordan, the latter of whom would consider this a precursor to the future forcible displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank to Jordan.
The main concern
for Israeli strategists shouldn’t be how they can achieve these goals but
rather whether they think that subjugating the Palestinians indefinitely while
ignoring their legitimate grievances could bring Israel security. Let us not
forget that Israel’s security solution for Gaza appeared to work until one day
it no longer did. The same applies to the West Bank. Without a political
solution, there really is no solution.
The writer is the founder and CEO of Ambit Advisory.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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