Is Sudan becoming a forgotten crisis?

After almost five months of bitter fighting in Sudan, the question today is not if the country is hurtling towards an all-out civil war but if anything can be done to stop it? Last month, the UN said that the two warring factions are plunging the country into civil war as more than three million civilians have been displaced and another million sought refuge in neighboring countries. The death toll is in the thousands, and there are corroborated reports that both sides have been involved in atrocities, while the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) has been pointed out for carrying out massacres on ethnic grounds in the Darfur province.اضافة اعلان

 Earlier this week, the Sudanese army was blamed for a drone attack at a busy market in south Khartoum, which killed more than 40 people and injured at least 50. The military denied responsibility.

Neither side has been able to extend complete control over the capital
Since mid-April, when fighting broke out between the Sudanese army under Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan and the RSF, commanded by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, neither side has been able to extend complete control over the capital, Khartoum, and the second-largest city, Omdurman and adjacent suburbs. Such power would have ended the fighting, although the RSF has managed to subdue most of Darfur in a series of bloody operations targeting civilians.

The army has air superiority
When the fighting broke out it was thought that the superior Sudanese army would be able to expel RSF fighters from strategic locations in Khartoum and Omdurman within days. That turned out to be a superficial belief. For some reason, the military has failed to take over Khartoum airport or dislodge the RSF from the presidential palace. Despite closing Sudan’s airspace, it is believed that the RSF could get outside help and replenish its munitions, although the army has air superiority.

An attempt to restore civil rule and guide the country to a state of multi-party democracy was foiled by Burhan. As a new deal was being negotiated between the Junta and the civilian powers, personal ambitions, especially by Dagalo--who did not want to lose control over his private militia--stood in the way. When the time had come to implement the historic transition deal, Dagalo broke ranks.

Since independence in 1956, Sudan, then the largest and most ethnically and religiously diverse country in Africa, has seen a number of civil wars: The first and the longest was between 1955 and 1972, the second was between 1983 and 2005 followed by the Darfur War in 2003. Later came the independence of South Sudan in 2011, followed by the conflict in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile between 2011 and 2020, and most recently reached the Sudanese Revolution (2018 - 2019), which toppled long-time dictator Omar Bashir.

But the current war of the generals is different. It is between two men, who were once reluctant allies in the Sovereignty Council. And when the time arrived for both to relinquish power, the split happened.

Foiled by Burhan An attempt to restore civil rule and guide the country to a state of multi-party democracy was foiled by Burhan. As a new deal was being negotiated between the Junta and the civilian powers, personal ambitions, especially by Dagalo--who did not want to lose control over his private militia--stood in the way. When the time had come to implement the historic transition deal, Dagalo broke ranks.

That is not to say that Burhan does not carry the blame. He short-circuited a civilian government that was working to fulfill its obligations under a transitional deal. Having said that, and as head of the Sudanese army, he has some legitimate credentials, especially if the unity of Sudan is at stake.

International community is to blame The international community is also to blame. It had dealt with both parties on equal footing as the crisis unfolded. Dagalo’s resume is flawed at best. Under his command, the RSF predecessor, the Janjaweed Arab militias, have been accused of carrying out ethnic cleansing operations, including mass killings, rapes, and other atrocities against Darfur's African communities under Bashir’s orders. Nearly 400,000 people have been killed and the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Bashir. Today, the ICC is investigating possible war crimes in Darfur once more.  

Dagalo has been associated with suspicious links to gold smuggling and other illegal activities that would have ended if the civilians had taken over.

Now, Burhan is seeking to solidify his legitimacy. He recently visited Egypt, South Sudan and Qatar to present himself as the best option for Sudan's future. He seemed optimistic that the army would win the day. Upon his return, he issued a proclamation disbanding the RSF; a symbolic move at best.

He is also doubtful of attempts by the African Union (AF) to mediate a compromise. An AF official recently met with an RSF representative, and the Sudanese government denounced that meeting.

Sudan faces several existential challenges
With no decisive military victory in sight, Sudan faces several existential challenges. Secessionist groups that had laid their arms under the Juba Agreement in 2020 are now threatening to resume the fight for independence. That would tear the country apart and ignite minor wars throughout the southern provinces. Additionally, the longer the war continues, the more civilians will suffer as the poor infrastructure collapses and ethnic tensions rise.

The international community is also to blame. It had dealt with both parties on equal footing as the crisis unfolded. Dagalo’s resume is flawed at best. Under his command, the RSF predecessor, the Janjaweed Arab militias, have been accused of carrying out ethnic cleansing operations, including mass killings, rapes, and other atrocities against Darfur's African communities under Bashir’s orders

Putsches in Niger and Gabon in West Africa and others
Sudan could become a forgotten crisis as attention switches to the military putsches in Niger and Gabon in West Africa and others. The continent faces multiple geopolitical challenges: the Nile crisis between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, the devastating earthquake in Morocco, the Russian incursion into former French and European colonies, and China’s growing economic role in Africa.

The trouble in Sudan should worry all, but especially one country in particular: Egypt. Sudan is Egypt’s Nile source, and without influence over who runs Khartoum, Cairo will find itself in a difficult position. The conflict with Ethiopia over the Great Renaissance Dam's fourth filling has compromised Egypt’s national security. Without a stable Sudan, Egypt will suffer.

Choosing between the two warring generals should not be a problem. Unfortunately, Sudan has seen more military rule by a strong man than democratic governance since its independence. Burhan has promised a return to civilian government once the rebellion is crushed. He should be given the benefit of the doubt!


Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.


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