Recently, the media have reported that Russia is using Iranian
drones in Ukraine; two months ago, during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
visit to Iran, he sealed the deal to purchase them.
اضافة اعلان
The Iranian drones have improved the Russians’
capability to attack Kyiv without moving troops risking losses in a
counter-offensive. Their purchase also highlights the lack of an effective
Russian-made alternative. The Russians needed a solution since they suffered
because of Turkish-made bayraktar drones, used by the Ukrainian army.
Strategically, the Russians have a limited timeframe
to use the Iranian drones effectively, as Ukraine will soon be equipped with
adequate defense systems that will neutralize their effectiveness. Given this,
the Russians are focusing on strategic targets such as power plants and other
critical infrastructure to maximize the impact and undermine the authority of
the Ukrainian leadership amongst the people.
While Iran is denying any involvement in the war, Ukraine is leveraging the use of Iranian drones to appeal to Israel to supply its military defense systems.
Politically, the use of Iranian drones by the
Russians clearly pits Iran against the Western allies of Ukraine. This could
push the EU and US to consider taking blunt positions against Iran. It is a
very delicate time for Tehran as it faces internal threats and waves of
demonstrations that could oblige the EU and US to take official positions on
human rights and personal freedom in Iran.
While Iran is denying any involvement in the war,
Ukraine is leveraging the use of Iranian drones to appeal to Israel to supply
its military defence systems. Israel has every interest to demonstrate to the
West that the military danger emanating from Iran is very real, as it has been
claiming all along.
This is a rare time where Iran is adopting an
explicit approach that antagonizes the West, at a delicate time for all
parties, and in the shadow of a potential nuclear war in Ukraine and Iran’s
nuclear program. It confirms the concerns of the Gulf countries regarding
Iran’s aggressive policies and military capacities.
With the decision to support Russia militarily,
Tehran might lose support amongst pro-Iranian Western countries, especially
those who were keen to restore the nuclear deal. Entering the Ukraine conflict
with military support for Russia could well trigger serious and concrete
decisions against Iran.
Amer Al-Sabaileh is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and
international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at
international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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