What happened to
Tunisia? The Arab Spring poster child, where the region’s uprisings began more
than a decade ago, is once again mired in political limbo. This time, however,
not many seem to care.
اضافة اعلان
After 2011, when
President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was toppled, Tunisians thought the West’s
cheering — not to mention its material assistance — would last forever.
It became a case of
mutual disappointment. While Tunisians were hoping their EU partners would have
enough imagination to go beyond the type of support usually associated
with European Neighborhood Policy programs, Europe
and the US were expecting Tunisia to forge ahead with political and economic
reforms. It did not.
For more than a
decade, wariness about social upheaval hindered economic reforms in Tunisia;
and in July 2021, President Kais Saied put an end to the political process,
which he blamed for the country’s ills, as he started to rule by decree.
Lagging reforms,
stalled funding
Tunis’ worst fears of
abandonment were confirmed in December, when the International Monetary Fund
decided to indefinitely postpone
discussion of a $1.9 billion loan package
that was supposed to help meet Tunisia’s budget needs and open the door to
additional loans.
Today, Tunisia
haplessly waits for the IMF to reschedule its executive board meeting and for
foreign donors to come through. Much-anticipated loans or deposits by Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have never materialized. Riyadh recently
said it would condition future financial backing to other
countries based on reforms.
It may be easy for Tunisia’s populists to redraw the map of their country’s alliances, but geopolitical realities are stubborn.
Many blamed Tunisia’s
inept diplomatic lobbying and its lack of clear commitment to economic change
for the reluctance of partners to step in. The just-announced change at
the helm of the foreign ministry provided some
hope that the country’s diplomacy could be starting to shed some of its
lethargic demeanor. World Bank vice president for MENA, Ferid
Belhaj, tried to reassure Tunisians recently that
foreign donors might still come forward.
While Tunisian
authorities often seemed tempted to deny that a crisis even existed, Western
nations have been focused on their own concerns — especially the Ukraine war
and related defense spending and energy plans. Any money that is going to
Tunisia today is being allocated for emergency
needs, not long-term programs.
Europeans and
Americans maintained a wait-and-see attitude toward Tunisia’s stuttering
process. Although Washington has not halted foreign assistance — nor has
it vetoed the IMF loan — US policymakers have signaled their intent to
slash economic and military
assistance.
In turning to their region, Tunisians are torn between awareness of their country’s dire needs and their acute sense of pride.
The US may also
suspend a $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation grant for an
infrastructure project, out of concern for what it sees as Tunisia’s democratic back-sliding. US Senator
Chris Murphy, a member of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said last month: “I do not believe
the United States should provide the Tunisian government with additional
support until there is a significant democratic course correction in the
country.”
Political
estrangement
The West’s quandary
is fueled by Tunisia’s fuzzy political outlook, which is compounded by the
opposition’s divided ranks and the Tunisian public’s political indifference, as
demonstrated by the 11 percent voter turnout in recent
parliamentary elections.
As American academic
Daniel Brumberg pertinently noted: “The number one
obstacle to democracy in Tunisia is not Saied, or even the still incomplete
autocratic institutions he has created; it is the overwhelming estrangement of
everyday Tunisians from the state, from any idea of formal politics, and from a
widely despised political elite.”
Ultimately, it is up to Tunisians to prove that their country matters to them. That will not happen through unbridled emigration and indifference to public life.
Some Tunisian
populists have used their country’s predicament to call for a foreign policy
realignment toward China. In December, Saied attended the Arab-China summit in
Saudi Arabia. Chinese President Xi Jinping told the Tunisian leader that Beijing
“firmly supports Tunisia in pursuing a development path suited to its national
conditions (and) opposes interference by external forces in Tunisia’s internal
affairs.”
That might have been
what Saied wanted to hear, but it is unlikely those words will determine Tunisia’s
future trajectory. China’s ties to Tunisia are mostly limited to trade and
Beijing is ill-equipped to replace Tunis’ Europe-based partnerships.
Allies and neighbors
It may be easy for
Tunisia’s populists to redraw the map of their country’s alliances, but
geopolitical realities are stubborn.
For the West, the
luster of Tunisia’s democratic experience may have faded, but not its
geostrategic value. The location of Tunisia in the middle of the Mediterranean
underpins the resilience of the country’s ties to Europe and the US. However,
there is no escaping the presumption that the future of Western attitudes
toward Tunisia will likely hinge on its leaders’ ability to convince their
interlocutors of their commitment to democracy and economic reforms.
Barring that,
Tunisia’s options are quite limited. The country has turned to its immediate
neighbors, with mixed results. Tunis, which depends on energy supplies from
Algeria, has received crucial credits from its neighbor including a $300 million loan in
December.
But in turning to
their region, Tunisians are torn between awareness of their country’s dire
needs and their acute sense of pride.
Many felt humiliated
when dozens of trucks loaded with food items crossed the border from Libya in January. For
decades, it was Libya that sought Tunisian food imports.
Others were shocked
to hear that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had spoken with
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune about Tunisia’s troubles in the same
breath as Libya, Mali, and other hot-spots. This reinforced the view among many
Tunisians that the West’s only interest in their country is in preventing
havoc from spilling over into Europe — particularly in the form of illegal
migration.
Ultimately,
it is up to Tunisians to prove that their country matters to them. That will
not happen through unbridled emigration and indifference to public life. For
Tunisia to regain its international radiance, it must first sort out its mostly
self-made crises. Only then will it be
seen as a viable partner and not just as a country seeking the good will of
foreign donors.
Oussama Romdhani is
the editor of The Arab Weekly. He previously served in the Tunisian government
and as a diplomat in Washington, DC. Copyright:
Syndication Bureau.
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