Whenever the National Water Carrier Project is brought up for discussion, the same question resurfaces: Why has its cost risen to its current level? Does this mean the project has become significantly more expensive than originally planned, or is what is being implemented today fundamentally different from what was proposed a decade ago?
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The reality is that many comparisons between the figures presented in 2016 and today's estimates are technically inaccurate because they compare two different concepts rather than two stages of the same project.
Back in 2016, only about two years after the Disi Water Conveyance Project began commercial operations, the proposal focused on constructing a water transmission pipeline linking southern and northern Jordan.
The objective was to transport water between governorates and improve the flexibility of the national water network. At that time, the project consisted solely of a transmission pipeline and did not include a new water source, a desalination plant, or an integrated water production system.
The project that has now reached its final stages before financial close is fundamentally different in terms of scale, components, and expected outcomes.
Rather than merely transporting water, it begins with producing water through the desalination of Red Sea water before pumping it through a massive pipeline network to governorates across the Kingdom.
The system is expected to provide around 300 million cubic meters of desalinated water annually, covering approximately 40% of Jordan's drinking water needs.
This distinction alone explains a significant portion of the increase in cost, as the project has evolved from a simple water transmission pipeline into a fully integrated system that combines a new water production source with transportation and distribution infrastructure.
The project has also expanded to include components that were absent from the original concept, most notably a solar power plant.
This addition was not arbitrary; it was introduced in response to environmental requirements set by financing institutions and international lenders, as well as the Ministry of Environment's efforts to reduce carbon emissions and decrease reliance on conventional energy sources.
Desalination plants are among the most energy-intensive infrastructure projects. Incorporating renewable energy into the project not only supports environmental objectives but also helps reduce long-term operating costs and enhances the project's sustainability once it becomes operational.
Beyond the project's expanded scope, there is another key factor that cannot be overlooked: global inflation.
Since 2016, the prices of steel, cement, pipes, pumps, electrical equipment, shipping, transportation, fuel, and energy have all increased substantially.
Global supply chains were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the Russia–Ukraine war and, more recently, regional geopolitical tensions.
It is also important to recognize that major strategic infrastructure projects are not built overnight, they undergo a lengthy process of economic feasibility studies, value-for-money assessments, environmental, engineering, and technical studies, along with continuous design reviews and financing evaluations.
These processes naturally lead to project refinements and the addition of new components whenever studies identify a need for them.
Ultimately, the discussion should not focus solely on comparing figures from different periods. Instead, it should begin with an understanding of the project's nature and scope.
The National Water Carrier should be assessed based on its strategic contribution to Jordan's long-term water security, rather than on its price tag alone.
