Two sources within the OPEC+ alliance reported that the group has reached a preliminary agreement to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in September.
اضافة اعلان
Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other key members of the alliance are expected to finalize this decision during a scheduled meeting on Sunday, in what analysts interpret as a strategic move to reclaim market share amid stable oil prices.
This planned hike follows a series of similar increases that began in April, signaling a notable policy shift from years of production cuts aimed at propping up prices.
Shift from Production Cuts to Market Reclamation
In recent years, OPEC+—which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers—agreed on three major rounds of voluntary production cuts, totaling around 6 million barrels per day, in an effort to stabilize or boost global oil prices.
However, since April, a core group dubbed the "Willing Eight" (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) has increasingly focused on regaining market share rather than limiting output. The anticipated September increase mirrors the agreed quota rise for August.
According to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, the market has largely priced in the expected increase, with Brent crude expected to remain around $70 per barrel following Sunday’s decision.
Future Production Still Uncertain
Despite the planned September hike, the group’s strategy beyond September remains unclear. ING’s Warren Patterson suggested the "Willing Eight" might pause further increases after September, citing potential oversupply risks.
He warned that starting in October, the market may face a significant surplus in oil supplies, and OPEC+ should be cautious not to exacerbate the situation.
Staunovo noted that actual output between March and June was lower than the allowed quota increases, further helping to support prices.
Bjarne Schieldrop, another analyst, highlighted OPEC+’s ongoing challenge: “balancing the need to recapture market share without triggering a collapse in oil prices that would hurt revenues.”
Geopolitical and Economic Pressures
The oil market is currently navigating a highly volatile environment, affected by:
Geopolitical tensions, such as the recent 12-day Iran-Israel war
Seasonal demand surges during the summer
President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies, including threats of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as India
In a recent statement, Trump gave Russia a 10-day ultimatum to end the Ukraine war, threatening new sanctions and trade restrictions if it fails to comply.
These developments may influence future OPEC+ policies, but analysts believe the group will only act in response to actual supply disruptions, not just price hikes driven by risk premiums.
In Summary
Preliminary deal: OPEC+ to increase output by 548,000 bpd in September
Goal: Regain market share amid stable prices
Caution: Potential oversupply starting October
Geopolitics: U.S. trade pressure and Middle East tensions complicate forecasts
Next steps: Sunday’s meeting to finalize decisions; further actions depend on market and geopolitical shifts
