Amman Jordan - which faces severe water scarcity, drought seasons, heat waves, and floods, has an increasingly urgent need to measure "climate risk" in a way that goes beyond the phenomenon itself, reaching the point of identifying the populations and areas that are "most vulnerable" and "least able" to withstand "shocks," adapt to them, and recover from their effects.
اضافة اعلان
Drought does not leave the same impact on all Jordanians, and a heat wave or flood does not carry the same cost for every family or region, as losses multiply when a climate phenomenon is combined with low income, weak social protection, difficulty accessing water, services, financing, and markets, or reliance on agriculture and livelihoods highly sensitive to climate.
This equation is the "essence of the approach" adopted by the World Bank's "Climate Risk Index," which shifts measurement from "monitoring" where drought, floods, heat waves, and storms occur, toward identifying the people "most likely to be harmed" by them, by combining the level of exposure to "risk" with seven dimensions of "vulnerability," including income, education, financing, social protection, access to electricity and water, and access to services and markets.
Recognizing Vulnerability Factors
According to Dr. Heba Al-Kharabsheh, director of the International Water, Environment and Energy Research Center, the importance of Jordan adopting climate risk indicators lies in their ability to "go beyond" monitoring climate changes to "identify" the areas and groups "most exposed and vulnerable," understand the factors that increase their level of "risk," and measure the extent of the "effectiveness" of national policies and investments in strengthening their capacity to adapt and be resilient.
Al-Kharabsheh adds: "When this data is translated into clear, measurable priorities, it turns from mere numbers in reports into an effective tool that supports decision-making and directs interventions and resources to where the need and impact are greatest."
Regarding the World Bank's index, she believes adopting this approach is "absolutely essential," because it doesn't only ask where drought, flooding, or a heat wave will occur, but who will be most harmed and why.
The World Bank, as she explains, combines exposure to four "main climate hazards" with seven dimensions of "vulnerability," including income, education, financing, social protection, water and electricity, and access to services and markets.
For Jordan, this approach will turn climate action from "risk maps" into a "tool" for identifying the populations and areas "most in need of intervention," thereby helping to direct limited resources "more fairly and efficiently," according to her.
Despite the index's importance, Al-Kharabsheh does not recommend "literally replicating the global index," but rather developing a "Jordanian vulnerability and climate risk index" that draws on the World Bank's methodology while suiting the Kingdom's specific circumstances.
Jordan, according to her, will not start from scratch, since it already has the National Climate Change Policy for 2022-2050, the National Water Strategy for 2023-2040, alongside a national system for nationally determined contributions.
Therefore, she identifies what's needed as spatially integrating climate, water, social, economic, health, and agricultural data, starting at the governorate level, then reaching districts and areas whenever data precision allows.
Regarding what criteria the index should include at the local level, she summed it up as clearly reflecting "Jordan's specific circumstances," so alongside drought, heat waves, floods, and torrents, "significant weight must be given to water security."
Al-Kharabsheh bases her view on what is stated in the National Water Strategy, that available renewable freshwater resources reached about 61 m³ per capita annually in 2021, compared to the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m³, and may drop to about 35 m³ by 2040.
Therefore, she notes it's not enough to ask whether water reaches a household, but rather the "reliability and continuity" of supply must be measured, along with the "ability to cope" with interruptions and drought, alongside income, social protection, health, housing quality, reliance on agriculture, and access to services.
Avoiding Confusion
Al-Kharabsheh affirms that the index can become a "tool for measuring" the impact of adaptation, not "merely the amount spent on it," which is consistent with the National Climate Change Policy for 2022-2050, which addresses adaptation, mitigation, financing, and technology transfer within the framework of the Paris Agreement.
Jordan had also raised, in its 2021 update to its nationally determined contributions, its emissions reduction target to 31% by 2030, and later deposited this in the vision document of the nationally determined contributions in September 2025, as she noted.
The proposed index, according to her description, primarily serves the adaptation side and priority-setting, and should not be confused with indicators measuring emissions reduction.
To achieve the principles of accountability and transparency in the index, Al-Kharabsheh proposed that each indicator have a "clear definition," a "data source," a "base year and calculation method," and that results be displayed "geographically" and be "updated periodically."
One of the strengths of the World Bank's own methodology is that it published its methodology, along with a package for reproducing and verifying the calculations.
She added that the Kingdom could adopt the same principle, by relying on "documented" government data, a "published methodology," "independent scientific review," and "results comparable over time," at which point the index would become a tool for "accountability and performance measurement," not "merely a number in a report."
However, she does not believe a "new" institution is needed, but rather linking institutions and data that "already exist."
She explained that the Ministry of Environment leads the climate side, sharing responsibilities with the ministries of water and irrigation, agriculture, health, social development, and energy, the Department of General Statistics, and the bodies concerned with meteorology, risk management, and local governance, each according to its mandate.
She proposed starting with a "pilot project" that builds a baseline for "climate risk and vulnerability," then updating it periodically, and linking it to decisions on financing adaptation projects.
Knowing Who Is Affected
From the perspective of Omar Al-Shoshan, chairman of the Federation of Environmental Societies (Specialized Federation), it is "no longer enough" to know that Jordan faces drought, water scarcity, heat waves, and floods.
Al-Shoshan told "Al-Ghad" that today's real challenge lies in knowing who is "most affected," where their "vulnerability" is concentrated, how much climate change impacts cost the "national economy," and what can be done before "risks" turn into "massive human and economic losses."
From here, Al-Shoshan believes Jordan needs to develop a "national index" for climate vulnerability, losses, and adaptive and resilience capacity, to serve as a "tool" for decision-making and directing climate spending and financing, not "merely a new indicator" added to the "system of national indicators."
He affirmed the index must start from the principle of "people and climate justice," since climate risks do not affect society "equally." A low-income family, a community dependent on agriculture, or an area suffering from weak services and infrastructure will be "more affected by a climate shock" than others. He therefore called for the index to measure three interconnected elements: "exposure to risk," "susceptibility to impact," and "adaptive capacity," while reaching "precise" results at the level of governorates, districts, and local communities.
He stressed that the index's greatest value would lie in linking "vulnerability to economic losses," since by integrating risk data with population, property, agriculture, infrastructure, and economic activities, "potential losses" could be estimated, and the cost of "not adapting" measured against the cost of "investing in prevention."
This, according to him, would "change the way" public policies are prepared; instead of distributing adaptation projects "generally" across national plans, resources could be directed to the areas and groups "most vulnerable," whether in water, agriculture, infrastructure, social protection, health, or early warning systems.
Ensuring Credibility
To ensure credibility, Al-Shoshan required that the index be "transparent and auditable," with "data sources," methodology, weights, and results publicly disclosed, "updated periodically," subjected to "independent evaluation," and linked to "parliamentary oversight" through its relevant committees.
He urged the government to move from the idea of a single "climate index" to a more "integrated" one representing a "national system for climate decision-making," linking data to planning, budgeting, projects, and climate financing.
He stressed that Jordan needs an index that identifies who "pays the price" of climate change, moving from knowing "where the risk exists" to determining who "will pay for it," what it will cost, and what can be done "to avoid paying a greater price in the future."
Varying Results
In the view of urban management expert Eng. Fawzi Mas'ad, the index's value lies not only in measuring climate risk, but in linking it to where people live, the extent of their vulnerability, and their capacity to adapt and recover.
Mas'ad added: "This intersects directly with the methodology of the project we implemented through the UN-Habitat program in Irbid and Mafraq, titled 'The Urban Plan for Climate Resilience for the Municipalities of Irbid and Mafraq' for 2023-2025."
He told "Al-Ghad" that the World Bank estimates that about 1.5 billion people, nearly a fifth of the world's population, combine exposure to climate risks with a high degree of vulnerability, and that Jordan and the Arab region are among the "countries most affected" by these climate phenomena.
He stressed that this methodology is very important for urban planning, because two cities may face the same climate risk, but the results could be completely different depending on resilience capacity, which is determined by income level, housing quality, availability of water and electricity, transportation, services, social protection, and ease of access to hospitals, markets, and job opportunities.
Consequently, according to him, climate urban planning must "not settle for risk maps" alone, but must produce "composite maps" that combine climate risk with social, economic, and urban vulnerability, in order to identify the neighborhoods and populations that should be given priority in investment and intervention.
Mas'ad added that for municipalities, the index could transform from a measurement tool into a tool for decision-making and setting investment priorities.
He continued: "Instead of distributing projects and resources equally socially and geographically, a municipality can identify the areas where high risk coincides with high vulnerability, then direct projects for rainwater drainage, increasing green spaces and shading, and improving water networks, public transport, emergency centers, and health services to those areas first."
From Response to Planning
The matter does not stop there, according to Mas'ad's affirmations, as the index can be used when preparing structural plans and land uses, so that urban expansion is "not permitted in the future" in areas "highly" exposed to torrents and floods, or "unable" to provide appropriate infrastructure and services.
He added that the index, in this sense, can help a municipality move from "responding after a crisis occurs to proactive planning for resilience."
He explained that the true value of this approach appears when we move it from the national level to the city and neighborhood level, as was demonstrated in the UN-Habitat project in Mafraq and Irbid, where the goal was to integrate climate change risks with urban planning, land uses, infrastructure, and population needs, and then propose interventions and projects that strengthen the two cities' ability to withstand and adapt.
He believes this experience should "not remain confined" to Irbid and Mafraq, but that it's important to develop it and gradually extend it to Jordanian cities and municipalities.
At the local level, a "more detailed" Jordanian index could be built, including, alongside the World Bank's elements, indicators such as the degree of exposure to floods and torrents, heat waves, drought, and water scarcity, population density, income and unemployment levels, housing quality, and access to water, electricity, and sanitation.
Among the indicators he added were access to hospitals, schools, public transport, and services, the proportion of the elderly, children, and the most vulnerable groups, in addition to infrastructure quality and green spaces, and the capacity of municipal and emergency agencies to respond, which is what was done in the Irbid and Mafraq project.
He noted that accountability begins when the index turns into information "available to the public," not merely an "internal study," so that every municipality can publish a map of climate risks and vulnerability at the neighborhood level, and identify priority areas, the projects to be implemented there, allocated budgets, timelines, and performance indicators.
He stressed that if priorities are built on "published" data and indicators, decision-making becomes "more transparent," the scope for "personal discretion" shrinks, and it becomes possible to hold the municipality and government accountable for the extent of implementation of interventions and improvement of indicators over time.
Resident Participation
More important than that, from Mas'ad's point of view, is for residents themselves to participate in verifying results, because satellite data and statistics are important, but residents also know where water accumulates, where temperatures rise, where services are cut off, and who are the people who face the most difficulty accessing services during crises.
To achieve this, he called for moving from "individual" projects to a "national program" for climate urban resilience for Jordanian cities, and "unifying a national methodology" through cooperation between the Ministry of Local Administration, municipalities, relevant ministries, the National Center for Security and Crisis Management, research institutions, and universities, while providing a "unified" and "updatable" geographic database in an "expandable" urban observatory.
This must be accompanied, according to him, by preparing a file on climate vulnerability and resilience capacity for each city, identifying risks and the most vulnerable neighborhoods and populations, and directly linking results to urban plans, capital budgets, and municipal projects.
Developing this integrated approach to measuring exposure to climate risks and vulnerability, and linking it to local planning and investment, would strengthen Jordan's readiness to prepare fundable climate projects, and put it in a better position to benefit from international climate financing sources, according to him.
He noted that the availability of clear data on vulnerable areas, the "most exposed" groups, investment priorities, and measurable results transforms climate needs from a "general description of the problem" into "qualified" programs and projects for financing, and strengthens Jordan's ability to attract grants and concessional financing to implement adaptation and climate resilience projects at the national and local levels.
Resource: Al-Ghad. Reporting: Farah Attiyat
