Recent activities mark a new chapter in Jordanian-Israeli
relations. While the peace treaty between the two countries has been in place
for more than 28 years, relations suffered a lot in recent years at the official
level. However, there has been a noticeable improvement since Israeli prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu left office.
اضافة اعلان
The risk of destabilization in the West Bank during
the holy month of Ramadan seems to be taken seriously by Jordan, which has
intensified the level of coordination with both the Israelis and the Palestinians
in a bid to cool rising tension in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank.
For Jordan, this is related to the role it plays as
the custodian of Al Aqsa Mosque and, above all, to the country’s national
security, considering that tensions in the occupied territories during the holy
month have the potential to trigger another escalation like that of May last
year when operations in Gaza caused tension to erupt in East Jerusalem. Security
escalation in the West Bank and Gaza triggered massive rallies and protests in
Jordan, and this is the last thing Jordan would like to face in the post-COVID
era when there is already economic and political frustration, inflation, and
unemployment, all factors that could lead to societal collapse.
... a guaranteed success of any mediation requires open channels with all parties to a conflict.
Avoiding any turmoil, destabilization, and
escalation of violence in the West Bank is one of the main challenges for
Jordan now, so its priority is to contain the situation in the West Bank to
prevent any fallout. This could explain why Jordan is capitalizing on the
relationship with the Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz; when security is
the priority, maybe security officials have a better understanding of how
critical inflaming tensions in the West Bank could be.
At the same time, it is also important for Jordan
to adopt a flexible approach to diplomacy with all countries and groups. In
most of the declared visits, it seems that the Israelis who come belong to the
same political bloc, the left wing, despite the real problem for Jordan being
the right wing of Israel’s political establishment. As such, it is important
for Jordan to have access to both sides of the political spectrum, to have an
open relationship with Israel, and to communicate openly with Israeli
officials. This also applies to the rival Palestinian parties Fatah and Hamas; Jordan
needs to protect its interests and maximize its capacity to influence both the Israeli
and Palestinian political scenes.
The Jordanian moves are pushed by security and
stability concerns, particularly in the West Bank, where tensions have been
rising in the weeks leading up to Ramadan. If Jordan succeeds in defusing any
possible crisis by convincing the Israelis to ease measures, especially at
Al-Aqsa Mosque, during Ramadan, this could be seen as a milestone that will
help improve relations and push for new peace talks between Palestinians and
Israelis.
The challenges for Jordan are serious, as
containing the security situation might not be easy; that is why Jordan needs
to have an open channel of dialogue with the various protagonists in Israel and
Palestine. Limiting the dialogue to certain figures will limit Jordan’s
capacity to influence and guarantee itself a role in this tense
situation.
After all, a guaranteed success of any mediation
requires open channels with all parties to a conflict.
The writer is a Jordanian university professor and geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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