Oil flows from the Gulf region, excluding Iran, rose in September to more than 81% of prewar levels, supported by a recovery in Saudi exports despite attacks on the Kingdom’s oil infrastructure and an escalation in Iranian attacks on regional shipping. Iranian exports, meanwhile, fell to zero amid the U.S. blockade.
The blockade brought Iranian exports to an almost complete halt, while other Gulf oil producers adapted to attacks on energy and shipping infrastructure by relying on so-called dark shipping, in which oil tankers switch off tracking systems to avoid detection and protect flows that underpin their economies.
Data from Vortexa showed that crude oil, condensate and refined fuel flows, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), averaged 19.2 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. That compares with an average of around 23.6 million barrels per day in the year before the Iran war began on February 28.
According to Kpler data, total oil exports stood at 18.6 million barrels per day in September.
Crude Oil Exports Show Stronger Recovery
Vortexa data showed that crude oil and condensate flows recovered to 91% of prewar levels, which stood at 16.3 million barrels per day. Refined fuel exports, including LPG, remained at just 60% of their prewar level of 7.3 million barrels per day.
The decline in fuel exports has exacerbated global shortages of diesel and jet fuel, contributing to prices reaching record or near-record levels in several markets. The Middle East is a major supplier of these fuels, making disruptions in the region particularly significant for consumers worldwide.
“Daily flows are much more volatile than they were before the war, so the key question is whether the latest levels can be sustained,” said Claire Jungman, an analyst at Vortexa.
According to Kpler data, Saudi Arabia led a significant recovery in total crude oil and condensate exports from the Gulf in September. Shipments increased by around 4.2 million barrels per day from August to reach 6.6 million barrels per day.
Drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut down the East-West pipeline last month, temporarily halting crude oil shipments at the Kingdom’s Yanbu oil terminal on the Red Sea.
The increase in Saudi exports exceeded the decline among other Gulf suppliers, lifting the region’s net export growth rate as shipments recovered from disruptions that had reduced flows in previous months.
Kpler data showed that combined crude oil and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran rose to around 14.7 million barrels per day in September, up from 10.8 million barrels per day in August.
Higher Saudi shipments offset losses from the decline in Iranian exports and lower shipments from Kuwait and Qatar, alongside increased exports from the UAE and Iraq.
Source: Reuters
