Amman — As the El Niño phenomenon takes center stage in the global climate debate as a major climate event, questions are emerging in Jordan about what the phenomenon means for the Kingdom’s weather, whether its effects reach the country, and the extent to which it could affect vegetation cover.
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Jordan’s Meteorological Department has officially stated that El Niño does not directly affect Jordan and cannot be linked to the weather conditions currently affecting the Kingdom, according to its director, Raed Al Khattab.
However, food security expert Dr. Fadel Al-Zoubi said that while Al Khattab’s statement is technically accurate, the effects of El Niño can reach Jordan through the jet stream and atmospheric waves. He argued that these indirect effects should be taken into account when making decisions concerning vegetation cover.
Al-Zoubi noted that 89% of Jordan’s land receives less than 200 millimeters of rainfall annually, while forests account for no more than 1.1% of the country’s total area. He added that rangeland productivity has fallen by roughly half since 1990, according to the National Rangeland Strategy, while rainfall during the 2024-2025 season amounted to only around 44% of the average.
He said these gaps can be addressed through appropriate policies and financing in an ecosystem that responds to every drop of rain and requires management that anticipates rainfall rather than reacts to it.
Al-Zoubi said a study by de Vries and colleagues published in August 2026 found that El Niño more than doubles October rainfall in the Middle East and increases November rainfall by around half, but does not increase rainfall in January and February, before Jordan’s main rainy season.
He added that a 2024 study by Hookmann and colleagues found that when El Niño coincides with the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, rainfall in the Fertile Crescent increases. He noted that this combination is occurring this autumn, but stressed that the opportunity is seasonal and probabilistic rather than a guarantee of a wet winter.
“Across the Arab region, the Levant tends to become wetter while the Maghreb tends toward drier conditions,” Al-Zoubi said, citing an ICARDA study that linked El Niño years in Morocco to wheat yield losses of 35% to 45% when accompanied by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
He also pointed to available financing opportunities, particularly the Green Climate Fund and the Middle East Green Initiative, backed by a Saudi commitment of $2.5 billion.
Risks Ahead
Al-Zoubi said three risks require preparation. The first is that early rainfall could trigger germination, only for subsequent dry periods to kill young plants. The second is that short, intense downpours could cause soil erosion and flash floods rather than allowing water to infiltrate the ground.
The third, which he described as the most scientifically likely, is related to heat. The hottest years globally — 2016, 2023 and 2024 — occurred during or after El Niño events, raising the possibility of a harsh summer in 2027 that could increase evaporation and evapotranspiration and turn any additional spring biomass into fuel for wildfires.
He said seasonal forecasts should be integrated into grazing and agricultural decisions, water harvesting should be timed to capture autumn rainfall, fire prevention plans should be activated before summer, and the Agricultural Risk Fund’s coverage under the 2025 law should be expanded to explicitly include drought.
Al-Zoubi added that Jordan already has a foundation on which to build, including a National Rangeland Strategy that recognizes the traditional Hima conservation system, an early warning system for drought operated by the Meteorological Department in partnership with the Ministry of Water, and an integrated land management initiative funded by a $44.9 million Green Climate Fund grant.
He said Morocco’s experience is also ready to be replicated.
Al-Zoubi cited several Jordanian success stories that he said deserved wider application. At Tal Al-Rumman, the Royal Botanic Garden halted grazing in 2008, resulting in biomass increasing by around 30% annually during the first three years. The number of native species also rose from 436 to more than 600, leading the United Nations in 2026 to select the site as a global restoration flagship project.
In the Bani Hashem Hima conservation area, 36 native plant species were recorded after one year of protection. In the central Badia, the “Vallerani” water-harvesting technique implemented by ICARDA restored native vegetation within six years, while forest fires fell from around 500 in 2021 to 55 in 2024.
El Niño in the Spotlight
For his part, Dr. Khaled Khreisat, executive director of the Academia-Industry Integration Platform, said El Niño has emerged as a major focus of the global climate debate, amid growing international warnings about its potentially severe effects on the environment and biodiversity.
He said this has raised regional and local questions about the extent to which these effects could reach the Arab region and Jordan.
Khreisat explained that El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become abnormally high. This can disrupt global weather patterns, wind circulation and rainfall distribution, producing severe droughts, floods and storms in different parts of the world.
These effects can in turn lead to vegetation loss, declining crop productivity and increased risks of large-scale wildfires.
Khreisat noted that despite the recent media attention surrounding the phenomenon, El Niño is not new. Geological evidence and climate studies indicate that it is a natural recurring phenomenon that has occurred every two to seven years for thousands of years.
The first human documentation dates back to the 16th century, when fishermen in Peru and Ecuador observed unusually warm Pacific waters and a sharp decline in fish populations. They called the phenomenon “El Niño,” meaning “the little boy” in Spanish.
“However, a comprehensive scientific understanding of the complex interaction between ocean temperatures and global atmospheric systems did not emerge until the mid-20th century,” Khreisat said. Scientists then demonstrated that these tropical temperature changes could reshape weather patterns around the world over extended periods.
El Niño in Jordan
On the local level, Khreisat said Jordan’s Meteorological Department has adopted a clear scientific position that El Niño does not directly affect the Kingdom’s weather and does not explain the atmospheric instability experienced by the country, particularly during autumn.
He explained that Jordan and the wider Levant are geographically distant from the phenomenon’s main area of occurrence, while local weather is primarily influenced by regional weather systems, including atmospheric instability and local low-pressure systems.
“Accordingly, there is no direct or scientifically established impact on vegetation cover or the agricultural sector in the Kingdom,” he said. “The condition of natural vegetation and rangelands remains largely dependent on direct regional weather systems and the amount and distribution of local rainfall during autumn and winter.”
He added that fluctuations in agricultural production or local vegetation density are therefore linked to rainfall conditions in the eastern Mediterranean basin and cannot scientifically be attributed to El Niño.
Regarding national efforts, Khreisat said Jordan does not have initiatives specifically targeting El Niño, but it has an integrated proactive system for adapting to climate change and reducing the risks of drought and flash floods.
These mechanisms include the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan, led by the Ministry of Environment to strengthen the resilience of vital sectors such as water and agriculture.
They also include projects implemented by the National Agricultural Research Centre to introduce modern irrigation techniques and promote drought-resistant crops. These efforts are complemented by expanding the construction of earth ponds and dams to collect rainwater and activating early warning systems for flash floods, based on continuous updates from the Meteorological Department to guide development sectors according to the Kingdom’s actual climate conditions.
Khreisat said proactive approaches to climate change are urgently needed to avoid expected environmental impacts and reduce the deterioration of vegetation cover regionally and globally.
These measures include managing water resources through modern irrigation technologies and rainwater harvesting, as well as promoting agricultural crops that are better able to withstand drought and temperature fluctuations.
He also called for expanding the cultivation of drought-resistant native plant species to protect the environment, stabilize soil and combat desertification. He recommended developing early warning systems for forest fires and relying on official and local meteorological bulletins and sources to guide agricultural sectors based on real-time and field data.
Different Impacts
Agricultural and development researcher and expert Dr. Hassan Al-Asoufi said El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in specific areas of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in changes in weather and climate patterns across many parts of the world.
He stressed that these changes affect rainfall amounts, temperatures and the timing of precipitation, but that their effects vary from one region to another. The occurrence of El Niño does not necessarily mean that all areas will experience drought or higher temperatures.
However, he said the phenomenon is particularly significant in dry and semi-arid regions because vegetation there depends heavily on rainfall and can quickly be affected by reduced precipitation or delays in rainfall.
In Jordan, he said, El Niño is particularly relevant because of the country’s dry and semi-arid climate, limited water resources and the dependence of large areas of agricultural land and natural rangelands on rainfall.
During seasons when rainfall declines or temperatures rise, wild plants, rangelands and rain-fed crops may be affected, weakening their growth and seed production. Some lands may also deteriorate and become more vulnerable to drought and fires.
“Conversely, if rainfall is sufficient and well distributed throughout the season, it may help improve plant growth and regenerate rangelands,” Al-Asoufi said. “However, these changes cannot be attributed to El Niño alone, as rainfall in Jordan is also affected by the movement of low-pressure systems and other climate patterns.”
Regarding the extent to which Jordan is affected by El Niño, Al-Asoufi said an impact is possible but is neither constant nor uniform across the Kingdom.
Climate studies have found a relationship between El Niño and rainfall levels in northern and central Jordan, while the relationship is weaker in the southern and eastern regions. This means El Niño may help explain some climate fluctuations, but it is not sufficient on its own to predict whether Jordan will experience a dry or wet rainy season.
“This highlights the importance of preparing for climate variability by protecting natural vegetation, regulating grazing, harvesting rainwater, restoring degraded land and expanding the cultivation of drought-tolerant native species,” he said.
Such measures can strengthen ecosystems’ ability to withstand fluctuating climate conditions while protecting rangelands and biodiversity.
Source: Al-Ghad
