An electric trickle is turning into a flood: As many as 100 new
electric vehicle (EV) models are coming to showrooms by 2025. Heavyweights
including
Volkswagen, General Motors and Ford are floating promises of
all-electric lineups within a decade.
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The end times of gasoline can almost seem a fait accompli,
except for one pesky issue: Even given Tesla’s strides, we are still waiting
for the first genuine EV sales hit, let alone a mass exodus from unleaded.
In 2014, Nissan sold a mere 30,200 Leafs, and that is still the
US record for any non-Tesla model.
Ford routinely sells more than 800,000
F-Series pickups. A single gasoline Sport utility vehicle (SUV), the Toyota
RAV4, finds well over 400,000 annual buyers, compared with roughly 250,000
sales last year for all EVs combined — 200,000 of which were Teslas.
Automakers insist we are “this close” to a tipping point. EV
market share is expected to grow to as much as 50 percent by 2032, from just
1.7 percent last year, said Scott Keogh, president and chief executive of
Volkswagen of America. While Tesla captured 80 percent of the US market for
electric vehicles in 2020, Volkswagen (VW) and other global giants — with war
chests built on internal-combustion engines and unmatched scale and
manufacturing know-how — are well positioned to take a piece of Tesla’s pie.
“There’s never been a competitive consumer product that sits at
80 percent market share” for long, Keogh said.
Globally, Volkswagen is poised to pass Tesla as the world’s
biggest electric vehicle seller as early as next year, according to Deutsche
Bank, with Europe and China its key markets. In America, where the brand
remains an underdog, VW and other legacy automakers are concentrating fire on
the sales fortress of compact SUVs: models like the RAV4, which deliver roughly
4 million annual segment sales.
The idea, as ever, is to drive down prices and charging times of
EVs while bolstering driving range until consumers see no reason to stick with
polluting gasoline models whose energy and operating costs exceed the plug-in
alternatives.
The latest electric-SUV hopefuls to reach showrooms are the VW
ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach-E and Volvo XC40 Recharge. The Nissan Ariya, BMW iX and
Cadillac Lyriq are set to arrive between late 2021 and next March. I drove the
VW, Ford and Volvo to see which might knock Tesla’s Model Y SUV down a peg — or
at least outsell the 2014 Leaf.
Ford Mustang Mach-E
Ford has branded its fabled Mustang name on an electric SUV,
inflaming some boomers in the process. But the Mach-E seems the most straight-up
rival yet to Tesla’s Model Y, in not only price and performance but also the
Ford’s maximum 480km driving range.
Consumers have noticed: Ford sold 3,729 Mach-Es in February, the
first full month of sales, almost single-handedly chopping Tesla’s dominant EV
share to 69 percent, from 80 percent. If Ford could maintain that pace for a
full year, the Mach-E would easily set a sales record for an EV not built by
Tesla.
Tesla’s 580km Model Y Long Range still squeezes a few more miles
from each onboard kilowatt-hour, owing to the carmaker’s expertise in
aerodynamics, motor and battery efficiency, and to “simple” stuff that is
anything but: Its 2,003kg curb weight undercuts the Ford by about 180kg. And
Tesla rules the public charging space with its Supercharger network that has
rivals — now with a potential infrastructure lift from the Biden administration
— racing to catch up.
The Ford fires back with a sculpted exterior versus the dad-bod
Model Y, a tech-savvy interior with superior materials and craftsmanship, and
winning performance of its own. With 346 horsepower from dual motors, the
Mach-E Premium All-Wheel Drive (AWD) that I drove shot to 60 mph in 4.8
seconds. Even the new Shelby GT500 — history’s mightiest Mustang, with 760
horsepower — will not equal the 3.5-second 0-to-60 mph blast of this summer’s
Mach-E GT Performance version.
The Shelby would shame the Mach-E or Tesla on any winding road,
of course. Yet the Mach-E is reasonably fun through the curvy stuff and glides
with addictive thrust and confidence.
A cinema-scale, 40cm touch screen sneaks past the Tesla’s 28cm
unit. Like other EVs, the Ford broadcasts its presence below 20 mph, a
throat-clearing hum to alert pedestrians. Inside, in its driver-selectable “Whisper”
mode, the Ford would please the most persnickety librarian. Dial up “Unbridled”
mode, and the Mach-E trades glorious silence for an overwrought, faux-engine
sound; think a V-8 remixed by Kraftwerk. The soundtrack is apparently for
people who need to be weaned off gasoline’s combustive beat, but it can be shut
off with a screen switch.
EV shoppers can whistle over the Ford’s price, as little as
$36,495, or $48,300 for the extended-range AWD model. Those prices include a
$7,500 federal tax credit that is denied to buyers of Tesla (or General Motors)
EVs because those automakers have sold too many to qualify. So despite Tesla’s
major defensive price cuts for 2021, the most-affordable, 230-mile-range Mach-E
undercuts Tesla’s 393km Standard Range by $6,700. A Mach-E Premium AWD saves
$2,900 versus a Model Y Long Range. In a surprisingly taut, compelling matchup
with the Tesla, credit the government for what may be the Ford’s most alluring
advantage: a $7,500 discount.
Volkswagen ID.4
No, Volkswagen is not changing its name to Voltswagen as the company
briefly convinced some media and car fans in a marketing stunt gone bad.
Regarding historic names, VW calls the ID.4 its most significant model since
the original Beetle. But where the Beetle was a revolutionary leader, the ID.4
feels like a follower.
Based on my drive, the VW can easily top its 402km range
rating, with 2,051km within reach. A rear-drive, 201-horsepower model rolls to
60 mph in 7.6 seconds. That is on a par with gasoline SUVs like the Honda CR-V
but pokey by EV standards. Dual-motor, all-wheel-drive models arrive later this
year, promising 60 mph in under six seconds.
From a company famed for fun-to-drive German cars, the ID.4’s
generic performance and styling are letdowns. Its infotainment system is even
more disappointing; the clunky, vexing touch screen cannot touch the on-screen
wizardry of the Ford, Volvo or Tesla.
The VW’s snappiest performance came during a fast-charging
session at a Target in New Jersey, replenishing its 77 kilowatt-hour battery
from 20 percent to 80 percent in an impressive 31 minutes. That growing network
of Electrify America chargers is funded by VW’s $2 billion, court-ordered
penance for its diesel emissions scandal. And VW is offering indulgences to
ID.4 buyers, with three years of free public charging.
Thrifty virtues include a $41,190 base price, or $33,690 after
the $7,500 federal tax break. That is $2,800 less than the most affordable
Mach-E. It is also less money, after credits, than a smaller Chevrolet Bolt.
The more powerful ID.4 with all-wheel drive will start at $37,370, post-credit.
Volvo XC40 Recharge
Volvo seems such a natural fit for EVs. And the
progressive-minded brand brings us the XC40 Recharge, an electrified take on
its gasoline XC40.
The Recharge is like that perfect dining table in a shelter
magazine: You are not sure why it costs so much, but you want it anyway.
The Recharge’s wedgy Scandinavian styling tops every SUV in this
group, as does its lovely interior. That includes soft Nappa leather, versus
the ascetic “vegan” materials of many EVs.
The drive is similarly breezy, with 402 horses and a
quicksilver, 4.7-second flight to 60 mph. The biggest tech talking point may be
Android Automotive OS: The Recharge (and Volvo’s electric Polestar 2)
introduces a cloud-based Google operating system that works like a dream, with
Google Maps, search, an ultracapable voice assistant and more. (Do not confuse
this with the ubiquitous Android Auto, which simply mirrors phone apps on a car’s
screen.)
Several major automakers, including General Motors (GM) and
Ford, plan to make Android Automotive the nerve centers of coming cars. If only
the Volvo itself were as efficient.
The Recharge is an electron guzzler, with a 208-mile range that
seems optimistic in real-world use. I drove the Recharge in frigid New York
weather, which explained some but not all of its hunger for power. No matter
how I babied the throttle, the Volvo stayed on a pace for 306km, at best,
covering about 4km miles for each kilowatt-hour in the batteries. I can achieve
6km per kilowatt-hour with little effort in the Tesla Model Y and above 5km in
the Ford.
Environmental Protection Agency numbers bear that out. Despite
having virtually the same-size battery, the Tesla brings 525km of maximum
range, 190 more than the Volvo. The Recharge is also expensive for its intimate
size: $54,985 to start and nearly $60,000 for the model I drove. That $7,500
federal tax break softens the blow. Yet if the Volvo indulges bourgeois buyers,
they will also need to indulge its profligate ways.
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