GAZA CITY, Palestinian Territories — Palestinian president
Mahmoud Abbas’ decision to indefinitely postpone elections could rekindle
tensions between his secular Fatah movement and Hamas Islamists, piling
pressure on
Abbas to set a new timeline for a vote, experts say.
اضافة اعلان
Abbas last week declared that legislative and presidential
polls set for May and July respectively, which would have been the first
Palestinian elections in 15 years, should not be held until Israel guaranteed
voting could take place in occupied East Jerusalem.
But even before he announced the delay, Abbas’ critics
forecast that he might use the complex Jerusalem issue as pretext to put off a
vote in which Fatah faced setbacks.
Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for
Policy and Survey research, told AFP the 85-year-old Palestinian president had
now confirmed those suspicions.
“It is clear that this [delay] is more about the expectation
of the outcomes of the elections rather than the issue of Jerusalem,” Shikaki
said.
Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority based in the
occupied West Bank, called the polls as part of a push to mend ties with its
long-term rival Hamas, which runs Gaza.
But as the election approached, Hamas was seen as better
organized than Fatah, which also faced challenges from splinter groups backed
by powerful former insiders.
Shikaki described Abbas’ unilateral decision to postpone the
votes as “very destructive.”
‘Escalation’
All Palestinian factions insist that voting be allowed in
East Jerusalem, an area they claim as the capital of their future state.
Some 300,000 Palestinians live in the eastern part of the
Holy City, seized by Israel in the Six Day War of 1967 and later annexed — a
decision not recognized by most of the international community.
Hamas and other Abbas critics have said that hinging
elections on whether Israel allows voting in Jerusalem gives Israel an
unacceptable veto over the Palestinian right to vote.
Following the postponement, Hamas accused Abbas of
perpetrating a “coup” against their partnership.
Rare protests against Abbas immediately flared both in
Ramallah and in Gaza City.
For Naji Shurrab, political scientist at Gaza’s Al-Azhar
University, “the only solution now is to return to the elections.”
Israel has said it will not interfere in Palestinian
elections.
But it has not commented on whether it would allow a repeat
of the 2006 arrangement that saw some Palestinians symbolically vote at
Jerusalem post offices.
Hamas won a surprise victory in that vote, a result not
recognized by Fatah.
The Islamists took power in Gaza after deadly clashes with
their rivals the following year.
Abbas has no obvious solution to the Jerusalem challenge,
and Shurrab warned that “an indefinite postponement could lead to an
escalation” with Hamas.
The United Nations’ Middle East peace envoy, Tor Wennesland,
on Friday voiced support for Palestinian voting in occupied East Jerusalem.
But, he said, “setting a new and timely date for elections
would be an important step in reassuring the Palestinian people that their
voices will be heard.”
“A prolonged period of uncertainty risks exacerbating the
fragile situation,” he added.
Fatah ‘fragmentation’
Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeina told AFP that Palestinian
factions will aim to “reformulate” a new election plan “in the coming weeks.”
But Adnan Abu Amer, a political scientist at Gaza’s Ummah
University, told AFP that Fatah’s position could grow increasingly weak as the
process drags on.
“Fatah is no longer united as before,” he said, referring to
splinter factions including one led by Nasser Al-Kidwa, nephew of the late
iconic Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
Kidwa is backed by the popular Marwan Barghouti, who is
serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli jail.
Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fatah security chief exiled to the
United Arab Emirates with access to considerable financial resources, is also
challenging Abbas.
Fatah’s “fragmentation will favor Hamas’s interests” and
have consequences for relations between them, Amer said.
Jamal Al-Fadi at Al-Azhar University said Abbas needed to
show “great wisdom” as he considers his next moves.
Otherwise, he warned, relations with Hamas could
“deteriorate further.”
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