Libya’s last chance ahead of partition

Skhirat agreement of December 2015
Skhirat agreement. (File photo: Jordan News)
Skhirat agreement of December 2015

Osama Al Sharif

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

The inter-Libyan dialogue has been going on, at various levels, for years. It resulted in multiple understandings and agreements, the most prominent of which was the Skhirat agreement of December 2015, which established a Presidency Council and an interim government, ending the duplicity of legislatures that had derailed the political settlement between various political and militant players in the east, west, and south. اضافة اعلان

But even that breakthrough had its detractors; chief among them was the head of the Libyan National Army, Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who in 2020 declared the agreement as “a thing of the past” after he failed to take over Tripoli by force. And for years, several UN special envoys had tried to close the gap between the east and the west in a bid to pave the way to hold presidential and legislative elections and unite the war-torn country once and for all.

The main question in a post-Gaddafi Libya is who will rule the vast, oil-rich, sparsely populated North African country? The 79-year-old dual national, Haftar, believes he should be the next leader. After all, he controls Benghazi and much of the south, and his troops can overrun the oil crescent at a moment’s notice. He also enjoys the support of several Gulf countries, Egypt, and Russia. He is also seen as a staunch Muslim Brotherhood opponent who happens to influence the UN-backed government in Tripoli, now headed by Abdul Hamid Al-Dbeibeh, who also has ties to militant groups and Turkey.

Haftar has relied on the support of the Tubrok-based parliament speaker, Agilah Saleh. The latter lobbied to fire the Dbeibeh’s government and named former minister of interior Fathi Bashagha as the new premier earlier this year.

Having failed to form a government, Bashagha tried to take over Tripoli by force, only to fail. A stalemate then prevailed.

Saleh also introduced a bill to set up a Constitutional Court in Benghazi while demoting one with similar powers in Tripoli. That straw broke all lines of communication between the two sides.

The proposed Constitutional Court is — or believed to be — intended to pave the way for Haftar to put his presidential election papers in order, mainly to abolish the previously agreed-upon statute that bars the candidacy of those with a military background or dual nationality from running.

Meanwhile, a year has passed since the postponement of the general elections on December 24, 2021. With no new date in sight, Haftar issued an ultimatum last week, “a final opportunity” to draw up a road map for new elections. There were speculations that he was close to declaring areas under his control in the east and south, including Benghazi, as autonomous or self-governed, which is almost what the case is today.
It is up to the Libyan people and their representatives to save their own country from foreign intervention and what seems to be the plausible scenario of partition.
But international pressure from the US, Italy, Germany, and the UK hit the brakes on Haftar’s threat. All four countries issued statements vowing to resort to “alternative mechanisms” unless the Presidential Council and Parliament agree to a Constitutional framework to hold the delayed elections.

Under such pressure, Saleh declared that he was not passing the Constitutional Court bill while he and the head of the Presidential Council agreed to resume dialogue. Dbeibeh, meanwhile, said he was ready to oversee the much-awaited elections provided that the next government will not be a transitional one.

This is not the first time that opponents have agreed to talk and implement what was embraced in the past. But the reality is that there are too many players, both domestic and foreign, who are preventing a final deal. For one, no central government or national armed force controls all of Libya. Tribal allegiances dictate how armed militias behave and where their loyalties lie. And political rivalries between the east and west prevent an accord on who should rule Libya.

Moreover, Libya has become hostage to geopolitical power struggles with regional powers such as Turkey, Egypt, and some Gulf countries, putting pressure on various parties. In the bigger picture, the US, Russia, and Italy, in addition to others, also have interests in how the country will eventually be run and where its politics will lean.

Another sad reality is that the big powers are too busy elsewhere to worry about an immediate resolution to the decade-old Libyan crisis. It is up to the Libyan people and their representatives to save their own country from foreign intervention and what seems to be the plausible scenario of partition. Judging from the track record of the various players in the last few years, discord rather than unity is what to be expected.

Foreign interlocutors will never agree on what is best for the Libyan people and their future. That has to be decided by Libyans alone, away from external pressure. Failing to do so, the likely thing to happen is that Libya will revert to pre-state conditions paving the way for partition along tribal lines. 

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. 

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