Once again, Libya finds itself in the middle of a political impasse.
Two governments, one in Tripoli and the other in Sirte, with rival prime
ministers, are competing for legitimacy as well as domestic and foreign
support.
اضافة اعلان
The latest showdown started in February when the
Tobruk-based parliament designated former interior minister Fathi Bashagha as a
new premier in place of the interim prime minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. The
latter was supposed to serve until the December 2021 presidential election,
which was aborted, but eventually vowed not to relinquish power except to an
elected government.
It took a failed attempt by Bashagha to force his
way into Tripoli last month to draw international attention to the Libyan
crisis after the Ukraine war had dwarfed it.
The spotlight also returned to the role of militias
as different armed factions smuggled Bashagha into Tripoli and eventually
escorted him out.
Ensuing clashes sparked fears of renewed civil war
and wariness over the response from Bashagha’s allies, in particular, the
parliamentary speaker Aguila Saleh and eastern army commander Khalifa Haftar.
Because of a dispute over payments, tribal elements
associated with Haftar had already shut down oil fields. This led the country
to lose billions of dollars in revenues at a time of soaring energy prices.
The selfish motivations of politicians have deepened
the cynicism of Libyans and their sense of powerlessness, which was rooted in
decades of disenfranchisement under Muammar Qaddafi and unbridled interference
by foreign powers since 2011.
The role, real and imaginary, attributed to outside
powers has added to the sense of confusion gripping most Libyans. Rumors and
conspiracy theories have only amplified the perception that the fate of their
country is not in their hands and that much depends instead on outside agendas.
Unfortunately for Libya, outside interference is all
too real and cannot be dismissed as a figment of the popular imagination.
Libyans have brought some of that interference upon
themselves. Rival factions in the east and west have always found it convenient
to look for support from foreign powers.
Considering the history of foreign meddling, there
is no escaping the conclusion that the solution to the conflict might require
international consensus and pragmatic prioritization. The sense of ambivalence
amongst international stakeholders will only delay any serious settlement
dynamic.
The building of a consensus could be helped by
Washington’s seeming re-engagement, even if unpredictable international
developments could make it temporary or limited in focus.
Another potentially helpful factor could be the
regional trend towards de-escalation and reconciliation.
Türkiye, which has unquestionably played a key role
in Libya politically, economically, and militarily, has edged closer to its
former rivals, including Arab Gulf countries and Egypt. Furthermore, Ankara is
now more involved in Syria and Iraq and worried about the impact of the Ukraine
war on its interests within NATO, the EU, and in connection with the US.
Consensus on a constitutional framework is a theoretical prerequisite for orderly elections. But it is also a prerequisite that Libya might not be able to afford right now, considering the country’s other pressing needs. The constitutional framework could be left to the next parliament to handle.
But, more than ever, there might be a need to reset
the UN-sponsored political process, which had already failed the test of
holding elections on time last year. The UN continues to navigate Libyan waters
without a clear endgame.
Stephanie Williams, the UN secretary general’s
special advisor, convened joint talks in Cairo last month, attended by
delegates from the House of Representatives and the State Council, which
focused on reviewing “the 2017 Constitutional Draft”.
A new meeting is scheduled in June with the hope of
finalizing the agreement on the constitutional text before elections can take
place.
The problem is that agreement on the constitutional
draft and its subsequent submission to a referendum are open-ended objectives
that have distracted attention from addressing the more immediate risks from
the rift between Dbeibah and Bashagha.
Consensus on a constitutional framework is a
theoretical prerequisite for orderly elections. But it is also a prerequisite
that Libya might not be able to afford right now, considering the country’s
other pressing needs. The constitutional framework could be left to the next
parliament to handle.
A more urgent task is to reach a consensus on the
type of elections to be held. Many hope that holding legislative elections
first could give birth to unified state institutions, including a parliament
and an interim government, and reactivate the constitutional court.
Prioritizing the much more sensitive presidential elections would mean delaying
any ballot for a long time.
Consensus will hinge on assuaging the fears of
critics in the east, who see the parliamentary priority as an Islamist ploy to
irrevocably cancel presidential elections.
Elections in Libya unavoidably exacerbate tensions.
It happened after the 2014 ballot and again before the scheduled vote of
December 2021.
Elections cannot easily gain traction on top of the
moving sands of Libya’s current zero-sum politics. The country might ultimately
need a clean slate of figures who can restore the public’s trust in their
political elite.
For now, the
focus should be on pragmatically seizing the moment and cutting the endgame to
a manageable size.
The mood at home
could be propitious. Despite all the fears about the two contending prime
ministers sparking civil war anew, Libya’s growing realization that any
military solution has become virtually impossible. Regional and international
powers are tired of sterile war by proxy. The Libyan population is exhausted by
years of hardship and blocked settlement prospects. They wonder what has taken
politicians so long. Despite regional and tribal differences, Libya is not
traversed by insurmountable partisan or sectarian cleavages and certainly has
the resources to start anew; if only spoilers just stand out of the way.
The
writer is the editor of The Arab Weekly. He previously served in the Tunisian
government and as a diplomat in Washington.
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