The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors began a
weeklong meeting in Vienna on Monday. The meeting is expected to censure Iran
for failing to answer questions regarding suspected undeclared nuclear sites
and activities, which have raised concerns that the Islamic republic’s
stockpiles of enriched uranium had reached critical levels.
اضافة اعلان
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has
warned that his country will not hesitate to take immediate action if the UN
nuclear watchdog rebukes his country. The already stalled nuclear talks now
face the prospect of total collapse if either party decides to take the matter
to the brink.
Certainly, the mood is gloomy, especially since the
talks have been suspended for over a month now, with several officials casting
doubts over an imminent deal. US negotiator Robert Malley said last week that
the prospects of a return to the Iran nuclear deal are “tenuous at best”, but
added that the Biden administration still believes it is in the national
security interest of the US to try to salvage the 2015 agreement.
Top EU diplomat Josep Borrell said that the
possibility of striking a deal and returning to the JCPOA is shrinking. The
Russian envoy to the Vienna talks was also not optimistic. But even as parties
mull an alternative to reaching a deal, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
told the head of the IAEA in Israel last week that while Israel still prefers
diplomacy, it reserves the right to self-defense and take action against Iran
to block its nuclear program. He urged the UN watchdog’s board of governors to
take action against Iran in their meeting this week.
In recent weeks, Israel has carried out war games to
simulate launching massive air strikes against Iranian targets. Israeli
officials have been engaging their American counterparts over available options
if the nuclear deal with Iran falls through.
But, despite all the tension and pessimism hovering
over Vienna and Tehran, diplomacy seems to be the only realistic conclusion to
over a year of negotiations. In fact, those close to the talks confirmed that
the parties have agreed on all relevant technical details to revive the
agreement. What is standing in the way are two main conditions that Tehran has
been insisting on: the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
from the US terrorist list and a guarantee that the US will not walk from the
deal in the future.
An uncalculated military adventure is too risky even for a maverick premier seeking to salvage his political career. The US is definitely not in the mood to take its eyes off Russia in Ukraine by waging a new war in the Middle East.
President Joe Biden is unwilling to approve the
first and unable to sanction the second.
The removal of the IRGC from America’s terror list
will further divide Congress. The Republicans are already opposed to reviving
the 2015 nuclear deal. On the other hand, Israel has made it clear that it will
not tolerate giving the IRGC a free pass. As to the second condition, Biden
cannot assure that his successor will honor the deal. The nuclear agreement is
not a treaty that Congress must approve — not that it will be adopted if it
ever gets to the floor.
While Iran has insisted on the two conditions,
diplomats have been trying to find a way out. One suggestion that seems to be
gaining support is to conclude an interim deal that would return Iran to the
deal, allow for full IAEA inspection, and remove US oil sanctions and others
related to nuclear activities while keeping Iran’s two conditions on hold — for
now.
The need for a deal has become more urgent for all
parties, especially in light of the Russian war in Ukraine. The US and Europe
want to free Iranian oil in a bid to calm the energy markets and bring prices
down. That is a must for Biden and the Democrats as they prepare for the
November midterm elections, where gas prices will play a pivotal role. For
Europe, Iranian oil should alleviate the shortages resulting from boycotting Russian
oil. For cash-strapped Iran, this would help it address domestic protests
against inflation and deteriorating public services.
The war in Ukraine has changed the dynamics of the
Vienna talks for all, including Israel. Bennett’s coalition government is on
shaky grounds and may collapse at any moment. An uncalculated military
adventure is too risky even for a maverick premier seeking to salvage his
political career. The US is definitely not in the mood to take its eyes off
Russia in Ukraine by waging a new war in the Middle East.
As for Russia, while releasing Iranian oil in the
international markets will do harm, the Kremlin may be looking at the larger
picture where a strong and stable Iran can play a more active role in
supporting Vladimir Putin’s anti-western alliance. Moscow does not want to
appear as the party preventing Tehran from breaking free from biting US
sanctions.
So, regardless of what the IAEA meeting will do
about censuring Iran, and despite all the pessimism, a deal may still be
rescued in the coming weeks. An “interim agreement” will save face and give
each party what it wants.
The leaders can always go back to their constituents
and say that as an interim deal, they can always back off. Despite all the
rhetoric, no one really wants to ignite another war.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman.
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