At this very moment, we may be witnessing a seminal moment
in the history of the 21st century. Russia has launched a full-fledged invasion
of Ukraine, in violation of international law, citing the security concern of a
possible Ukrainian accession to NATO.
اضافة اعلان
As Middle Eastern people, we should be able to feel immense
sympathy for Ukraine. The David and Goliath scenario of a small nation being
encroached upon by a large imperialist power is one we are all too familiar
with. The images of America’s rape of Iraq and the Soviet brutalization of
Afghanistan are fresh in the minds of many Arabs and Muslims. We are used to an
aggressive neighbor as well; recall Israel’s constant attacks on the
Palestinians and its many violations in Lebanon. The plight of Ukraine and its
people is one we can feel on a deep and heartfelt level.
Yet, in some Middle Eastern circles, this is not the case.
Many Middle Eastern commentators and laymen have adopted the simplistic
mentality of supporting whoever America opposes, no matter how repulsive their
actions and ideas. Particularly, some “anti-imperialists” liken Ukraine joining
NATO to the way the US bullies Iran: surround the country with bases and
effectively suffocate it. This is quite a false comparison. Iran, while a
powerful state, is not nearly on the same level strength-wise as the US, unlike
Russia, which is at a comparable level.
Furthermore, Russia is not some beacon of resistance. It has
a traditional and recent history of vicious division and conquest. It does what
America does, but in its own backyard.
Just this century, Russia attacked Chechnya, invaded
Georgia, annexed Crimea and helped crush grassroots protests in Kazakhstan,
amongst many other violations of international law.
Iran also engages in reprehensible intervention beyond its
borders, but this is relatively new in the grand scale of modern Iranian
history. It is deep defense, a reaction to incessant American and Israeli
hostility.
Perhaps Russia is right to be concerned about potential
Ukrainian membership in NATO, but with Russia hounding Ukraine for decades, it
is no wonder Ukraine is seeking a deterrent.
Even with these facts in mind, the Middle Eastern street may
be hesitant to fully support Ukraine. It is not a close country. By contrast,
it has ties with the West and Israel. But the fact of the matter is that this
goes beyond Ukraine in particular. If the Middle Eastern street is aloof to
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it would be far harder to gain sympathy for our
own struggles. We have an obligation to be morally and logically consistent in
the way we think of foreign policy.
Despite all this, discussing the practical implications is
of equal importance to discussing the ethics of such a move. How the US
responds to Russia’s provocation may determine the direction of geopolitics for
some time to come. If America puts its foot down, either through debilitating
sanctions or boots on the ground, it is not likely that Russia could handle the
pressure, and the possibility of de-escalation would be realistic.
However, if America fails to take concrete action, it would
most certainly give the impression that it is an unreliable ally.
There is historical precedent for this. When the US failed
to back the UK, France and Israel in the Suez Crisis, the Soviets took this as
a green light to violently crush anti-Communist protests in Hungary. In the
current context, this could have a great effect on the Middle East. The “axis
of resistance” camp, led by Iran, would be motivated to pursue further action
against pro-Western governments, leading to a general trend of the region’s
larger local forces clamoring for influence in a potential American power
vacuum.
Russia could expand its influence beyond Assad’s Syria, but
this is wishful thinking, given the cost of war and the steep decline of the
ruble.
On the other hand, China, with its economic prowess, can
swoop in if it maintains its tactful neutrality. It is difficult to determine
what approach China would take in regard to the Middle East.
Historically, Communist China has firmly supported Arab
causes, chiefly the Palestinian movement, but the current generation of
technocrats seems to be guided more by pragmatism than ideology. If that is the
case, what is certain is the Middle East’s quick integration into the planned Belt
and Road Initiative.
The current events in Ukraine are not as distant from the
Middle East as they seem. Russia’s constant misdeeds against its neighbors are
reminiscent of all foreign invasions and war mongering in the Middle East.
Despite the fact that this time it is occurring in another part of the world,
it is easy to draw a parallel.
Furthermore, the invasion of Ukraine is a test for the
western bloc, led by the US. If it fails to take adequate action to stop this
heinous act of war, it could set off a domino effect and shift the balance of
power, which would have massive ramifications for the Middle East.
Mohammad Rasoul Kailani is a writer and first year student
at the University of Toronto. Amongst various other topics, his interests are
in Middle Eastern affairs.
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