After over a year of behind-the-scenes diplomacy emboldened
by recent unilateral initiatives, Syria’s membership in the Arab League was
finally restored Sunday when Arab foreign ministers reached a consensus on what
had been a bitterly divisive issue since the eruption of the Syrian crisis 12
years ago. And there is no doubt that this was a huge diplomatic victory for
the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad, which at one point, before the Russian
military intervention in 2015, was on the brink of collapse.
اضافة اعلان
The new Arab approach to resolving the complex Syrian crisis
is based on several factors. Over a decade of failed attempts to find a
political settlement to end a brutal civil war has led to a deadly stalemate,
leaving parts of the country under the regime’s control and others under direct
or indirect foreign occupation or influence. This had ceased to be a domestic
crisis almost as soon as it had erupted, with regional and outside parties
getting involved, backing various opposition groups, either politically or militarily.
Likewise, documented atrocities committed by the regime — including using chemical weapons — will continue to warrant investigation, accountability, and a final reckoning.
One must not forget the bleak episodes involving foreign
Islamist extremists slipping into Syria to join fundamentalist outlaws who
filled the vacuum left by the regime to set up an abhorrent dystopian society.
Likewise, documented atrocities committed by the regime — including using
chemical weapons — will continue to warrant investigation, accountability, and
a final reckoning.
Syria’s stalemate had exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in
all parts of the country, as underlined by last February’s devastating
earthquake. Furthermore, regional and global geopolitical shifts have altered
views of how best to approach the Syrian crisis. What most Arab leaders agreed
upon was that the current “status-quo politics” was unsustainable against a
backdrop of shifting priorities, needs, and challenges.
What is important to note here is that the process of
rehabilitating the Syrian regime is only the beginning. The step-by-step
approach is open-ended, and it will take years to reach a true closure to the
Syrian tragedy. The core of the new approach is based on finding a working Arab
formula that fulfills UN resolutions on Syria, previous understandings, and
frameworks under other tracks, such as Geneva and Astana while achieving
national reconciliation. It is a tall order, and the Arab League’s track record
in conflict resolution is disputed at best.
Any genuine approach to resolving the crisis in Syria, which
includes committing to political reforms, the return of refugees and displaced
people, dismantling the drug smuggling network, and ending foreign presence on
Syrian soil, all while preserving Syria’s territorial integrity and
sovereignty, among others, must rest on a reciprocal formula. This means that
the regime must end its cryptic response to the Arab initiative and should, at
one point soon, reveal where it stands on such an issue.
Any genuine approach to resolving the crisis in Syria, which includes committing to political reforms, the return of refugees and displaced people, dismantling the drug smuggling network, and ending foreign presence on Syrian soil, all while preserving Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, among others, must rest on a reciprocal formula.
This is where a number of Arab countries made their
reservations. And this is the public position of other key players, such as the
EU and the US, with some variations.
For Damascus, outlining its position on the above issues is
pivotal if the new Arab approach is to be given a lifeline. Assad is unlikely
to abandon his Iranian allies, although he may commit to symbolic gestures, at
least regarding the presence of non-state players. But it is a long way before
he signals any concessions on critical issues, such as writing a new
constitution for Syria or even talking to the opposition; the latter appears to
have disappeared from the scene. There is also the Syrian Kurdish matter, their
demands for self-rule, and the presence of US troops on their territory.
The US response to this latest diplomatic breakthrough has
been pragmatic and reserved. While the US says that Syria has not earned the
right to rejoin the Arab League, it adds that it understands what its Arab
allies are trying to do, which is to jumpstart a political solution in Syria.
The fact that key US Arab partners such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq,
and the UAE support Syria’s political rehabilitation sends a strong message to
Washington that its policy in Syria has failed and is currently inert.
The new Arab momentum has to be taken in light of the
historic rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran and its implications for the
wider region, including Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. A wider perspective
must include Russia’s mounting pressure to end the Syria-Turkey rift, whose
future could be decided by the outcome of the Turkish presidential elections
next week.
The fact that key US Arab partners such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and the UAE support Syria’s political rehabilitation sends a strong message to Washington that its policy in Syria has failed and is currently inert.
For Syria’s Arab neighbors, namely Jordan, Lebanon, and
Iraq, Sunday’s embrace of Damascus will be taken much more personally. Amman,
for example, sees the captagon smuggling across its 360km border with Syria as
a national security threat. There are indications that Jordan’s air force
launched a deadly strike against a drug factory in Daraa on Monday morning,
killing the most wanted Syrian drug kingpin in the process. This signals a new
strategy by Amman in handling such a threat, which according to various
reports, involves members of the Assad clan. Jordan and Lebanon are eager to
find solutions allowing the voluntary return of hundreds of thousands of Syrian
refugees.
Iraq and Jordan want to secure their borders with Syria in
order to control smuggling as well as terminate pockets of Daesh fighters that
continue to pose a threat to both.
Talking to the Syrian regime, either on a bilateral basis or
through an Arab League committee, to resolve a long list of issues will not be
easy. The regime’s survival had come at a hefty price, and there are new
realities on the ground that would make it difficult for Assad to cough up
concessions. But in the absence of alternatives, the current path seems to be
the only one making sense. Hopefully, the regime will see sense in preserving
the benefits of its return to the Arab fold and will do its part in ending an
endemic political deadlock.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
Jordan News
.jpg)
.jpg)
