No one, including
those who signed the accord paper in Algiers on Thursday, believes that this
time Palestinian factions will stick to a reconciliation deal that aims at
ending 15 years of bitter division.
اضافة اعلان
The latest deal, one of many that were reached even
before Hamas militants took over the besieged Gaza Strip in a bloody putsch
against the Palestinian Authority (PA) in 2007, is unlikely to change the
current status quo in spite of almost unanimous urging by the Palestinian
people to end the rift.
Unlike previous deals, which began in Mecca in 2007
and were adopted again in various forms in Doha, Istanbul, Dakkar, Cairo, and
Gaza City, this time the main factions, Fattah and Hamas, failed to agree on
one key point: the forming of a national unity government.
The document did include clauses on developing the
structures of the PLO, forming its national council, and holding legislative
and presidential elections. The last item has been agreed upon more than anyone
can remember. The last time President Mahmoud Abbas called for such elections
was in January 2021, only to “postpone” the polls four months later. The excuse
was that Israel did not offer guarantees that East Jerusalem Palestinians will
be allowed to vote.
Palestinians have an ominous sense of déjà vu
regarding the Algeria accord. Even as the UN, EU, and many countries praised
the agreement, in reality, neither party feels pressed to go into a partnership
that could spell disaster for either or even both.
The fact that Hamas feels relatively safe holding
the reins in Gaza and is now eyeing extending its influence into the occupied
West Bank is enough reason for Fattah, the largest PLO faction, to derail any
agreement.
Likewise, the PA under ailing Abbas is in no mood to
alter the status quo. It believes it remains the legitimate representative of
the Palestinian people and continues to enjoy the support and recognition of
the international community, including Israel and the US.
The fact that Israel has managed to establish some
sort of a framework with Hamas in Gaza is important. Even though the two sides
continue to demonize each other in public, the reality is that Hamas and Israel
have reached an informal understanding. This became apparent in the recent
confrontation between Islamic Jihad and Israel, where Hamas sat on the
proverbial fence.
Israel is now issuing thousands of work permits to
Gazans as daily workers, permits that benefit Hamas’ empty coffers. A delicate
truce has been established between Israel and Hamas, with the former keeping
the blockaded strip alive for now.
Only the Palestinian people inside the Green Line and in the occupied territories can upset the deadly status quo and change the current trajectory.
Another important point has to do with the fact that
Hamas’ military wing has more leverage on how things progress on the political
front than the movement’s titular leadership. And the military wing is not
bound by what Ismail Haniyeh agrees to in Algiers.
On the other side, Fattah is fractured and the PA is
hated by most Palestinians. Its survival, ironically, is tethered to Israel’s
military and political bodies’ good intentions. In recent months, the PA’s popularity,
and that of Abbas, has dipped as lone wolf-style Palestinian attacks against
Israelis surged all of a sudden. Israel’s response, as it prepared for a fifth
Knesset election, which could prove consequential to the future of the state,
has been to crack down with bloody force.
Since the beginning of the year, thousands of
Palestinian youths have been arrested while Israel’s army engaged in a killing
spree of militant Palestinians in Jenin, Nablus, and elsewhere.
Since the assassination of Palestinian-American
journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, the rate of Palestinian attacks against the
occupiers has been on the rise. So much so that the Israeli government is
holding security meetings to address the new phenomenon known as the “Lion’s
Den” resistance movement that is sweeping the West Bank. The movement is not
tied to any of the known Palestinian factions, and is well armed. It is now
posing the biggest security challenge for the Israeli government a few weeks
before the November 1 election.
Interestingly, this is one security challenge for
Israel where the PA, notorious for its coordination with the occupiers, can
offer little help.
The Algeria deal will soon be forgotten as the rift
between the PA and Hamas deepens. The upcoming Arab summit will praise it and
Abbas, who did not attend the two-day talks in the Algerian capital, may even
make additional false promises. For a growing number of Palestinians, the
87-year-old self proclaimed patriarch has become more of a pied piper, making
promises he cannot keep. He is still making the same old threats to sever ties
with Israel and withhold recognition.
Only the Palestinian people inside the Green Line
and in the occupied territories can upset the deadly status quo and change the
current trajectory. The fact is that the current status quo is unsustainable
and change could come when all parties, including Israel, least expect it.
Osama Al Sharif is a
journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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