The war we are witnessing between Iran, the United States and Israel will have extremely serious consequences, extending beyond a return to warfare in its military sense. There is ample evidence of the cost this war is imposing on people around the world.
اضافة اعلان
Protests are sweeping across France, Albania and parts of Italy. Although each protest has its own range of causes, the rising cost of living and deteriorating economic conditions are major drivers. This economic and political backlash has spread to other countries, from the United States to Australia and Canada, as well as Arab and Muslim countries.
Everything we are witnessing is a ripple effect of the Al-Aqsa Flood. When the operation was given that name, no one knew that events would change everywhere, from the outbreak of wars to economic costs and popular protests. This means that the flood, which began in the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, has had far-reaching consequences, opening the door to major changes that could take us toward a third world war if the situation remains unchanged and deteriorates further in the coming months.
An analysis of popular protests in Europe shows that their causes are linked to serious disruptions in global energy supply chains, particularly as attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified and shipments of gas and oil have been affected. This has pushed fuel and gas prices to record levels, driving up heating, transportation and household electricity costs across Europe.
Higher energy and fuel prices have also directly increased agricultural production costs, including fertilizers and maritime shipping, triggering a broad wave of food inflation that has placed considerable pressure on household budgets and reduced purchasing power. Meanwhile, the energy crisis has pushed inflation to elevated levels and weakened consumer spending across Europe, deepening the economic slowdown and intensifying the burden of rising prices on the public.
The situation is not limited to Europe. The United States is also grappling with high fuel prices, rising commodity costs, falling property prices and increases in bank interest rates that have been followed by banks around the world, placing a heavy burden on people and their homes. One example is the closure of thousands of restaurants in the United States and the decline in consumer spending.
The situation is different in some respects for Arab countries, but they too face serious changes affecting spending, projects, government budgets and household finances. Official and personal borrowing is becoming more widespread, while there is little prospect of an economic recovery.
The Al-Aqsa Flood has opened the way for the world’s most significant changes. Since October 7, a succession of developments has unfolded across Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Iran, as well as in matters involving oil, shipping and strategic waterways. New alignments may emerge, with different camps taking shape. There are also questions surrounding the strategic calculations of Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan, the pressures facing Gulf states and the possibility of other parties entering the military arena to contain the economic repercussions. Such involvement could extend from China to Europe, which faces an exceptional situation that may worsen as winter approaches.
We must also remain realistic. The international landscape has not evolved in this way solely because of the Al-Aqsa Flood. Earlier crises and underlying tensions were already present, beginning with the rivalry between the United States, China and Russia, and the Russia-Ukraine war, and extending to the global economic crisis, economic downturns and the spread of inflation and global debt. Many other factors could also be listed.
This means that mounting pressures across multiple crises, with no clear exits or solutions, have converged with developments in the Middle East. Ultimately, the Al-Aqsa Flood was the spark that set the region and the wider world ablaze.
The foregoing is not intended as an economic analysis of the situation. Rather, I am pointing to the costs the world is now facing costs that no one has yet been able to contain. They may rise further if the region descends into a wider war in the coming weeks, a possibility given that the world’s influential powers appear indifferent to the human cost and continue with their plans despite being aware of the consequences.
Had the world granted the Palestinian people their rights, there would have been no flood in the first place. And had Israel not existed, none of these injustices would have occurred. When a people’s blood is shed over the course of a century and no one pays heed, it is as though we are saying that the curse of bloodshed does not stop at the boundaries of its victims. This conclusion no longer needs proof. Nothing illustrates it more clearly than the way the flood has thrust the entire world into a new reality, bringing long-postponed crises across the region and the world to the surface.
