TRIPOLI, Libya — With the world focused on
Ukraine, UN mediators are trying to avoid
a political crisis degenerating into new violence in Libya, where Russia has
long been a major player.
اضافة اعلان
The war-battered
North African country found itself with two governments earlier this month
after the eastern-based House of Representatives appointed ex-interior minister
Fathi Bashagha in a challenge to the Tripoli-based premier, Abdulhamid Dbeibah.
Bashagha came to
power on the back of an alliance with eastern Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar,
Moscow’s main ally in
Libya with backing from the Kremlin-linked Wagner
paramilitary group.
But Dbeibah, who
was installed last year as part of an
UN-led peace process, has insisted he
will only cede power to an elected administration.
Bashagha has
ruled out using force to dislodge his rival, but the standoff has sparked fears
of a return to violence in a country that has seen a decade of chaos since the
2011 revolt that toppled dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
On March 10,
pro-Bashagha armed groups deployed on the edges of the capital, raising fears
of a confrontation that would end a fragile ceasefire in place since October
2020.
But Khaled
al-Montasser, an international relations professor at the
University of Tripoli, said Bashagha had placed a losing bet against Dbeibah.
“He thought that
as long as he had the vote of confidence from parliament, he could easily get
rid of the internationally-supported government,” said Montasser.
“It quickly
became clear he was wrong.”
‘Parallel
governments’
The UN, keen to avoid the collapse of a hard-won ceasefire in place for
the past 17 months, has called for calm and offered to mediate in the standoff.
Last week, the
permanent members of the
UN Security Council avoided taking sides in the
dispute — except Russia, which openly backed Bashagha.
Under-Secretary-General
Rosemary DiCarlo warned in a briefing to the Security Council that “the Libyan
executive is facing a crisis that could, if left unresolved, lead to
instability and parallel governments in the country”.
Stephanie
Williams, the world body’s top Libya official, has been urging the sides to
accept mediation over a new constitutional basis for elections, a key bone of
contention.
She is set to
meet representatives of the Tripoli-based High State Council in the Tunisian
capital on Tuesday, but parliament has yet to respond publicly to her mediation
offer or appoint its own delegates.
Oil blockade?
Analyst Faraj Al-Dali told AFP that to avoid two rival administrations
taking root, foreign actors should push for peaceful solutions and dialogue.
That would
clearly show that “the international community and the US don’t want to see war
return in Libya, especially in the current context of the war between
Russia and Ukraine”, he said.
US Ambassador
Richard Norland, who met Bashagha in Tunis on Sunday, said “choosing one camp
at the expense of the other is not an option”.
While diplomats
are not openly discussing the possibility that Russia would push Haftar to
install Bashagha in Tripoli by force, some believe he could use his control
over oil export terminals as a weapon by halting shipments — at a sensitive time
for European energy markets.
Pro-Haftar
groups last week threatened to do just that, even as industrialized nations are
pushing OPEC countries, including
Libya, to boost production amid record high
prices due to the conflict in Ukraine.
“Such a blockade
would certainly serve Russia’s interests, as it would drive oil prices higher
still,” said Libya analyst Wolfram Lacher.
Yet Bashagha,
who has considerable backing from armed groups in Tripoli, could
“theoretically” resort to force regardless of Russia’s next move, according to
Montasser.
That would
however “sign the death warrant” of his government, hurling it into “an armed
conflict that could last months or even years”, he said.
The one hope for Libya
could be that neither side has anything to gain — and both have much to lose —
from a return to violence, he said. That could favor some form of political
dialogue leading to a compromise.
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