Of all the possible mediators in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Israel has emerged as the most unlikely. Israel did not co-sponsor a UN
Security Council draft resolution that condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
much to the dismay of the US and European allies. Later, and under pressure
from Washington, it voted for a General Assembly resolution deploring the
Russian incursion into a UN member country. But Israel has much interest in
keeping contacts with both the Kremlin and the Kyiv government.
اضافة اعلان
While Turkey and China offered to mediate, Israel emerged on
the scene as a potential interlocutor in the past few days. Israeli diplomats
were careful not to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They turned down
pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a Jew and ardent Zionist, for
supplies of lethal weapons. Ukraine’s ambassador in Israel lamented the fact
that Israel did not dare send helmets to aid Kyiv. But still, Israeli Prime
Minister Naftali Bennett saw an opportunity to play a role that would give his
country an advantageous geopolitical position in what is in essence a European
crisis.
On Saturday he flew to Moscow on an unannounced visit and
met with President Vladimir Putin for three hours before heading to Berlin to
brief the German chancellor Olaf Scholz. Sunday evening he received a call from
Putin and it was agreed that Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid would meet
his American counterpart, Antony Blinken, in Latvia, on Monday.
Even though Bennett himself admitted that Israel’s mediation
may lead nowhere, Israel would emerge having scored political points. Bennett
had said that he had cleared his Moscow visit with the US and European allies.
But why is Israel so interested in a mediation role between
Moscow and Kyiv? For starters, there is Syria, which the Israelis say positions
Russia on Israel’s border. Less than 12 hours after Putin called Bennett,
Israel launched an airstrike on targets within the Damascus airport parameters.
For Israel, getting the Russians to look the other way as Israeli jets bomb
suspected Hezbollah and Iran-backed militia bases in Syrian is a national
security priority.
For now it looks like Putin has not changed the rules of
engagement in Syria with regard to almost daily Israeli strikes, but that could
change.
… Bennett believes that Israel stands to gain from an influx of Ukrainian Jews to Israel as an outcome of the crisis. Israeli sources talk of no less than 200,000 Ukrainian Jews who could arrive in Israel as a result of the war.
The second Israeli interest in maintaining contacts with
Moscow has to do with the Vienna nuclear talks, which appear to be reaching a
conclusion. Iran has expressed irritation with news that Moscow has introduced
new conditions in Vienna just as the different parties were reaching a
penultimate agreement. Bennett would love for the Russians to put last-minute
hurdles before a final agreement in Vienna. Russia’s calculations may differ
from those of Israel for now, but the delay benefits both.
And finally, Bennett believes that Israel stands to gain
from an influx of Ukrainian Jews to Israel as an outcome of the crisis. Israeli
sources talk of no less than 200,000 Ukrainian Jews who could arrive in Israel
as a result of the war. Ukraine is home to one of the largest Jewish
populations worldwide, and a small number of Ukrainian Jews has already arrived
in Israel.
But Bennett is walking a tightrope. This is not a local, but
a global crisis, with the US pushing its allies to take a clear stand. At one
point Israel, like all Western allies, will have to choose a side, especially
if Kyiv falls to the Russians. Moreover, Israel cannot avoid comparisons
between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its own colonization of Palestinian
lands and breach of international law.
Ukrainian officials are already criticizing Israel for
appeasing the Russians. Israel’s role as mediator can only go so far. At one
point there will be a crack in the Russian-Israeli rapport as the crisis gets
deeper.
Bennett himself admitted that his mediation may not bring a
peaceful resolution, and Putin is adamant about conquering Kyiv and installing
a puppet regime. Bennett’s role may be undercut by what happens in Ukraine in
the coming few days.
Putin may be using Israel to further divide the Western
coalition. He is allowing Turkey to play a mediating role, with the foreign
ministers of Russia and Ukraine slated to meet in Antalya in a few days.
For now it does not look like Israel’s mediation will end
the Ukraine crisis. Bennett may hope to achieve some immediate gains from
talking to Putin, but these gains may be wiped out if Putin switches channels
of communication, allowing Turkey or even China to act as go between with the
West.
Israel is the worst possible mediator between Russia and the
West. Its own history is one of serious double standards where the Palestinian
issue is concerned, and chances are that Bennett will soon take a back seat as
more reliable mediators step in.
The writer is journalist and political commentator based in
Amman.
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