Amman — A political and media seminar discussed scenarios for the next phase in Israel in light of the upcoming elections and profound changes within Israeli society, as well as their implications for Palestinians and the Arab world. Participants warned of the growing influence of the far right and diminishing prospects for political change toward a more moderate course.
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The seminar, titled “Elections in Israel: Media Analysis of Scenarios for the Next Phase,” examined the prospects of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returning to power, the future of Arab parties in Israel, the challenges facing Palestinian political action, and the need for an Arab and Palestinian strategy capable of responding to Israeli and international developments.
The discussions, held as part of a dialogue program organized by the Media and Communications Forum at the Center for the Protection and Freedom of Journalists, concluded that Israel’s upcoming elections should not be viewed merely as an internal political process, but as part of broader transformations in Israeli society and its political and security positions.
Concerns were also raised that a return by Netanyahu or the formation of a government including more extremist forces could lead to the continuation of escalatory policies in the Palestinian territories and broaden their regional repercussions amid the ongoing war and worsening crises across the region.
Participants stressed that responding to these developments requires a careful reading of the Israeli political landscape, alongside the development of a joint Arab and Palestinian strategy capable of turning international shifts into tools of political pressure rather than relying solely on changes in Israeli governments.
Sami Abu Shehadeh, head of the National Democratic Assembly party, said efforts to exclude Arab electoral lists from Israel’s elections through requests to disqualify them reflected political calculations linked to the prospects of forming the next government.
He said the most important factor that could prevent Netanyahu from returning to power was the turnout among the Palestinian Arab community and the nature of its parliamentary representation.
Abu Shehadeh said more than 30 lists had entered the electoral race, while disqualification requests focused on the two Arab lists, the United Arab List and the Joint List, with five petitions submitted seeking to prevent them from participating in the elections.
He said the measures reflected, in his assessment, a double standard in dealing with political activity inside Israel and increasing restrictions on Palestinian citizens. He added that candidates could face a choice between withdrawing and bearing a personal political cost, or confronting judicial decisions involving serious allegations.
He warned that the repercussions extended beyond the elections themselves to the future of Palestinian political activity inside Israel, amid attempts to impose additional restrictions on political participation.
In his assessment of the electoral landscape, Abu Shehadeh stressed that replacing Netanyahu would not necessarily lead to an improvement in relations with the Palestinians. He argued that the shift toward the far right had become broader than the identity of the prime minister, with segments of the Israeli elite adopting hard-line positions toward Palestinians and the region.
He also warned against the continuation of Israeli policies that contribute to keeping the Arab region in a state of instability, arguing that the absence of a unified Arab strategy gives Israel greater room to maneuver and pursue its regional objectives.
For his part, Dr. As'ad Ghanem, a professor at the University of Haifa, called for Israel’s elections to be examined through an in-depth study of Israeli society and its political and media institutions. He cautioned against relying on quick analyses that reduce the situation to Netanyahu’s political fate or the election results alone.
He stressed that understanding Israel, whether as an adversary or as a regional actor, requires strengthening the role of research centers and specialized discussions to help build more realistic and effective Arab and Palestinian policies.
Ghanem noted that the elections are taking place amid an extremely difficult Arab and Palestinian situation, including the continuing crisis of the Palestinian political system and its inability to develop effective mechanisms for national decision-making. He said revitalizing Palestinian democratic life could provide an entry point for rebuilding national institutions.
He warned that the changes Israel has experienced in recent years have affected the media, academia, judicial institutions and political culture, and that betting on the end of the Netanyahu era does not necessarily reflect a shift in Israeli public attitudes toward the Palestinians.
He said political competition inside Israel is largely linked to internal and personal rivalries and does not necessarily indicate a fundamental disagreement over the Palestinian issue, warning that continuing along this path could lead to further escalation.
Ghanem stressed that shifts in international public opinion, including in the United States, do not automatically translate into tangible political outcomes. Rather, they require organization, political effort, and a Palestinian and Arab strategy capable of capitalizing on such changes.
He also criticized the absence of a joint Arab and Palestinian vision for confronting Israeli policies, warning that the cost of continuing to lack such a strategy could be extremely high for Palestinians and Arabs.
In her contribution, Farah Badour, a political researcher at the Israel Policy Forum in Washington, addressed changes in Israel’s security doctrine following October 7. She noted that security approaches had undergone major shifts, with greater emphasis on establishing buffer zones and taking a tougher approach toward threats surrounding Israel.
She said the nature of Israel’s political alliances and the positions of the forces participating in the government could lead to greater rigidity in dealing with security and regional issues, including Iran, while reducing the prospects of reversing existing policies.
She stressed that interpreting the results of the upcoming elections should be linked to a broader understanding of changes in the concept of Israeli national security, rather than focusing solely on the identity of the prime minister or the composition of the governing coalition.
Source: Al-Ghad
