Recently, Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World
Bank, warned that the food insecurity that could be caused by Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine may be a catalyst for unrest around the world, particularly in Arab
states.
اضافة اعلان
“I don’t want to be melodramatic, but it’s not a far stretch
that food insecurity and riots were part of the story behind the Arab Spring,”
she cautioned. There is one part of Reinhart’s quote that is definitely wrong:
the bit about her being melodramatic.
Russia and Ukraine export various essential staples to the
states of the global south. In Egypt, where 80 percent of wheat comes from
these two countries, officials have already banned exports of many grains for
three months, underscoring the urgency of the situation.
In Jordan, the Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Supply
banned exports and re-exports of certain food items.
Hunger and rising prices could very well be the factor that
kicks off a second (or third, if we include the 2019 protests in some Arab
nations) great uprising.
Recall the story of Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi whose
self-immolation started the Arab Spring? In December 2010, Bouazizi went into
debt buying the produce he was to sell the following day. The frustration of
soaring prices and the headache of not knowing if the next meal would come was too much to bear for him, as it must
have been for his nation, which protested in anger after his death.
Economic hardship was the main reason for 2011 Arab Spring.
People become desperate when they cannot make ends meet. It seems that Arab governments
have not learned this lesson, because there is still discrepancy between the
minimum wage and the cost of living.
Examining three Arab countries, one finds that the problem
is approaching a breaking point. In Cairo, Egypt, a single person has monthly
living costs of 6,757 Egyptian pounds, without rent, while in January, the
monthly minimum wage was 2,400 Egyptian pounds. Providing for a family of four
will cost 24,228 Egyptian pounds, without rent.
The monthly cost of living, without rent, for a single
person in Algiers is 57,132 Algerian dinars. The number goes up to 201,961
dinars for a family of four, yet the monthly minimum wage is 18,000 dinars.
This wage has not changed since 2012.
If Arab states want to avoid another decade of crisis and instability, they must address the pressing economic and social needs of their citizens.
In Jordan, a single person’s monthly cost of living averages
JD481; this climbs to a whopping JD1,734 for a family of four. Unfortunately,
the minimum wage stand at a dismal JD286 per month. Sure, not all goods in the
monthly cost of living are essential, but the fact that the numbers are so
staggeringly high without taking housing costs into account is bound to cause
discontent.
Making ends meet is not the only problem that may trigger
social unrest. Lack of civil and political freedom, another important reason
for the first Arab Spring, is a major and worsening problem in the Arab world.
Freedom House is an organization that ranks the state of
civil and political liberties on a scale from worst (1) to best (100). After
comparing scores for 12 Arab countries in 2017 and 2022, I found that the
amount of freedom in eight Arab countries has decreased.
Countries that had revolutions in 2011, such as Egypt and
Tunisia, experienced dramatic drops. Tunisia, the most democratic of these
states, has gone from 78 to 64, meaning that no Arab country is considered
“free” according to the rankings. As for the states that experienced uprisings
in 2019, the outlook is not great either. Algeria lost three points despite the
Hirak movement, and Lebanon also experienced a slight decline. Sudan has gone
up four points, but still has a 0/40 in the ranking of political liberties,
likely a result of the military regime there. Jordan has dropped from 37 to 33.
So much upheaval caused by these problems in the last
decade, yet no substantial change whatsoever.
As tensions flare up in Eastern Europe, it may be that the
world’s superpowers will take a break from intervening in the Arab world for
some time. Moreover, the region’s most powerful countries are warming toward
each other. Thus, external problems are no longer an excuse for government
shortcomings. No longer can Arab regimes deflect problems and blame them on
Israel, the US, and Iran. The ball is in their court.
If Arab states want to avoid another decade of crisis and
instability, they must address the pressing economic and social needs of their
citizens. The circumstances that prompted the 2011 unrest still exist. The
bonfire has been built, and anything could light it any time.
Mohammad Rasoul Kailani is a writer and first year student
at the University of Toronto. Amongst various other topics, his interests are
in Middle Eastern affairs.
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