France does not face any direct enemy. It enjoys major influence
within the EU. It has a unique relationship with the US – close
enough to be taken seriously, and yet far enough so as not to be taken for
granted there. And although France is at the core of the Western camp, it has maintained
a smart, strategic positioning vis-à-vis the rising global power, China –
consistently mindful of what Simone de Beauvoir called “la force des choses”
(perhaps suitably translated as the power of circumstances).
اضافة اعلان
France’s economy is strong. Inflation often bites;
youth unemployment is a problem; and several sectors need major reforms, but
the foundations of the economy are solid. Its industry is competitive,
including vis-à-vis rising Asian economies. And its educational system remains
extremely successful at producing world-class talent in both science and
technology as well as in art and the humanities.
Yet, France is restless, for it correctly sees major
changes on the horizon.
The first change concerns Europe’s security. France
knows that the order that had prevailed since the end of the Cold War
collapsed, and that for a few years now we have been in a transition toward an
emerging new global order.
In this new order, the US does not rule supreme;
China widens its presence in the world; its influence transcends economics to
politics; Russia attempts to resuscitate features of the Soviet Union by
different forms of force; and the West is far from the economic and
technological global hegemon it was in decades (and centuries) past.
This emerging new order imposes acute challenges not
only on Europe’s security, but also on its living standards, relationships with
its neighborhoods, and on its view of itself.
In turn, these challenges impose crucial questions
on France. Is France fully committed to the European project in its fundamental
premise and true end: political unity on the continent? Or does France want
only a trading union of closely coordinating members with intimate cultural
affiliations?
The more challenges intensify the more the nature
and ultimate goal of the EU will need to be stated clearly and
followed through in practice. Given its size, richness, and political weight,
France will have to put forward its views and answers. This will be one of the
most important responsibilities of the resident of the Elysee Palace in the
next few years.
The second change on the horizon is increasing
social inequality, where developments in and out of France will impose on the
country more difficult questions.
Emerging from the recent global pandemic, and still
reeling from the lasting effects of the financial crisis, and with rising
levels of national debt across Europe, almost all of the continent’s economies
will undergo a period of challenges, and perhaps adjustments.
Technology will exacerbate the situation. This,
because many jobs that were lost in the past decade will not come back. The gig
economy is here to stay, and many previously in social segments that saw
themselves as only customers of the gig economy will become also workers in it.
Wealth creation will become even more skewed than it was in the past few
decades. Social mobility will become slow, especially as the standards of
living of middle classes in most European countries will decline.
This will impose a responsibility and a question on
France. The next president and government will need to devise policies that
lessen the impacts of these coming strong winds on its economy and society.
This will heighten the need for some sectoral and social reforms, and as such,
will require serious, intelligent, and credible leadership.
The question that these economic and technological
changes impose links back to France’s relationship with Europe. Because of its
relatively strong economic position, France will be tempted to distance itself
from those in Europe whose economic conditions and levels of competitiveness,
and therefore future prospects, are challenging.
There will be voices invoking the idea of two- (or
three-) tiered Europe, seeing benefits in a cluster of rich Europeans, as opposed
to the others who will certainly suffer from the coming problems. Again, in
this situation, will France choose to commit and work toward the EU ultimate goal? Or will it decide that the difficulties on the horizon
necessitate a transformation of the union?
This leads us to the third change France faces.
Amidst the threats and challenges, there is the seduction of escaping, in the
mind, to an imagined past, anchored on stability and tranquilly, and when
supposedly there were no acute problems and difficult questions.
Escapism to a comfortable mental fantasy is an
extremely powerful psychological strategy, particularly when people are afraid
or traumatized. And today, many people in the West are fearful of the coming
changes. And if indeed these approaching changes result in economic traumas
(not necessarily in France, but in its immediate neighborhood), we can expect
more and more people, within and without France, to retreat into fantasies.
Fantasies call for comfort, which call for conformity.
In France this means reducing the most palpable feature of difference in the
society: Arabs and Muslims – whose otherness, in the minds of many, is cultural
and civilizational. Of course, this difference has been, for centuries, a
source of fascination, enchantment, and enrichment in French psyche. Yet,
often, it was a feature of differentiation, defining for many in France what it
is not.
I doubt that this escapism will take hold of large
segments of the French society. Indeed, France has often, in its long history,
toyed with hard-headed dogmas that were anchored on narrow definitions of what
France means and constitutes. But rich, adventurous, refined, and crucially
confident French culture and identity are, and France has repeatedly prevented
brief flights into fantasy from becoming falls into fanaticism. France
repeatedly stood confidently in front of the narrow-minded among its people,
baring its beauty as both guidance and reprimand. Its fiery eyes, exquisite
beauty, commanding stance, and the loud voice of its marvelous culture have
been an antidote to the poison that often seeps from the veins of the fearful.
Still, it will be a difficult and probably long
cultural fight within the society, for the true soul of France to vanquish fear
and resentment. This fight will put another major responsibility on the
shoulders of France’s wise in the coming few years.
Many in France today look around them and see in
their neighborhood and beyond landscapes that have been subjected to serious
devastation in the past decade. They sense the coming winds. Many know that
their house has strong foundations. Yet inside the house, there are some who
are afraid, their eyes oscillating between statues of the Virgin of beauty and
refinement and shadows they see growing larger and appearing closer.
Amidst the looming challenges and the questions they
impose, France’s answers will be highly consequential for its experiences in
the coming few years, as well as for Europe’s shape, and place in the emerging
new global order.
The
writer is an author, essayist, and broadcaster.
This article first appeared in Al-Ahram Weekly.
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