Intense fighting between the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) and Daesh continued for the fifth day in Syria’s
northeastern city of Al-Hasakeh on Monday, following Daesh's biggest attack in
Syria and Iraq in three years.
اضافة اعلان
In the evening of January 20, as many
as 200 Daesh militants, many wearing suicide belts, launched a coordinated
multi-axis assault on Al-Sina Prison, shortly after detonating two car bombs
parked along the exterior walls of its northern wing. In the chaos that ensued,
SDF vehicles were seized and used to break through secure walls, clearing the
way for hundreds of Daesh detainees to escape.
Having broken into the facility,
some Daesh attackers then seized control of the prison’s northern wing — home
to hundreds of battle-hardened militants and as many as 800 male
minors, previously deemed to have been security risks by SDF authorities.
Five days later, some of that
northern wing is still under Daesh control, while a force of 10,000 SDF
fighters backed by US air support and, per reporting, both American and British
special forces, remain engaged in clashes with Daesh militants in two parallel
neighborhoods surrounding the prison. So far, 175 Daesh militants have
reportedly been killed and more than 450 recaptured, while 27 SDF fighters are
dead and at least 25 remain hostages inside the prison.
According to the UN,
45,000 civilians have also been displaced by the five days of fighting, and
elsewhere in SDF territories, Daesh has conducted more than a dozen other
attacks.
Public statements issued by the US-led
coalition declaring that Daesh’s attack on Al-Sina Prison has made the group
“weaker” display a worrying misunderstanding of reality. As with its previous
iteration in Iraq, Daesh places prison breaks at the top of its agenda — not
just to release prisoners, but as bold, demonstrative acts that underline the
continued unity of its cause and its persistent military capabilities.
Imagery and news emanating from Al-Hasakeh
in recent days has been propaganda gold-dust for Daesh’s local and global
cause. While the group remains a very long way from where it stood in 2013-14,
it is not hard to envision this attack marking a turning point in Daesh’s
efforts to recover and resurge.
The attack also raises serious
questions about the sustainability of the US-led coalition’s willingness to
hold 12,000 Daesh militants in makeshift and poorly resourced prison
facilities.
Al-Sina Prison is the largest
detention facility for captured Daesh fighters in the world, and yet it is
merely a series of converted school buildings surrounded by walls. While human
rights groups have expressed legitimate outcry about the fate of 800 boys
inside the prison, few if any have asked why the SDF had judged them to be
security risks and decided to hold them alongside battle-hardened Daesh
militants for years on end.
There are also questions to be asked
about the SDF’s security capabilities. That 200 armed Daesh fighters managed to
bypass at least a dozen SDF checkpoints into and through Al-Hasakeh city, along
with two car bombs, in order to attack the most sensitive site in SDF
territory represents a stunning intelligence and security failure.
Once the dust settles, a coalition
investigation should look squarely into whether Daesh had infiltrated prison
security — as it has done in virtually every prison break in its history.
Judging by Daesh video footage from inside the prison, prisoners appear likely
to have known about the attack in advance and it is well-known that through
bribery, Daesh prisoners in Al-Sina regularly gain access to SDF guards’ cell
phones.
As fighting has raged, the SDF has
made a concerted effort to distract from its own failings by accusing Turkey of
complicity in Daesh’s attack — through a series of claims that can best be
described as misinformation. The SDF missed entirely a force of 200 armed
jihadists and two car bombs entering a heavily guarded city under its control,
so its claims to know precisely where they came from should be treated with a
mightily big grain of salt.
Looking forward, the US-led
coalition has some serious soul-searching ahead of it. It has been clear for
years that the current approach to Daesh detention (without trial, in makeshift
facilities guarded by a poorly resourced non-state actor) was a ticking time
bomb.
While some marginal progress has
been made with regards to the roughly 65,000 associated family members held in
internment camps in SDF areas, the issue of male fighters has not moved an inch
since the initial international intervention in 2014. Assuming an unprecedented
local tribunal is legally and logistically impossible and the prospect of
handing detainees over to the Assad regime is beyond the pale, the
international community has a responsibility to better secure the prisoners
while alternative options are considered.
Ultimately however, the attack on Al-Sina
underlines a concerning trend that has been clear for some time: Daesh has
slowly, quietly, and methodically been rebuilding itself in Syria and Iraq ever
since the defeat of its territorial "Caliphate" in March 2019.
Rolling back Daesh’s territorial entity was a strategically simple task when
compared to the follow-though: a complex, resource-heavy, and
intelligence-dependent counterinsurgency and counterterrorism campaign. Yet,
instead of adapting to that complex challenge, the coalition cut its own
resources, placing even more pressure on our “tactical” partner, the SDF.
Prior to this significant attack, Daesh
had a great many opportunities to exploit in favor of its gradual recovery in
Syria, but events over the past several days risk accelerating that process
markedly. The fight against Daesh remains a long way from over.
The writer is a senior MEI fellow
and the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs
at MEI. The article first appeared in Middle East Institute’s website.
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