Russia’s recent decision to
suspend participation in the
BlackSea Grain Initiative, a UN-backed agreement that has allowed Ukraine to export food
during the ongoing conflict, will have repercussions that go beyond threatening
global food security.
اضافة اعلان
It could also rewrite the region’s political map.
In the eyes of many Russian propagandists, the grain deal reversal
is
payback for humiliation levied by Turkey on July 7, when Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan
repatriated five captured Ukrainian commanders.
The fighters had spent several months in a secure facility in
Turkey after surrendering to Russian troops in the port city of Mariupol last
year. The soldiers were part of the Azov regiment, which Russia considers
a
terrorist organization.
The fact that Turkey’s combat drone producer Baykar has begun building a plant in Ukraine clearly indicates that Erdogan feels self-confident and does not see Russia as a threat to its interests. Erdogan knows that if Turkey is at the table, Putin’s room for political (and even military) maneuvering is limited.
From the Russian perspective, Erdogan’s decision to send the men
home was a slap in the face. If Russia had extended its participation in the
grain deal, which uses Turkey as a transit hub, Putin would have looked even
weaker, the thinking goes.
Not ready to reimpose another full blockade of the Black Sea
But Russia’s withdrawal from the deal does not mean that the
Kremlin is ready to reimpose another full blockade of the Black Sea, as it did
at the
beginning of the war, or that it plans to jeopardize its relations with Ankara.
However, there is no doubt that one of the major goals of
Russia’s recent missile strikes on Ukrainian ports is
to prevent, at least temporarily, the country from exporting its grains.
Despite having different views on the UN-supported initiative,
Putin and Erdogan remain
“friends,” according to the Turkish leader. Putin is expected to
visit Turkey in August, and the grain initiative
will be high on the agenda. Although Russia has shown its hand, Erdogan insists that Putin is
interested in a continuation of the agreement.
What any new deal might look like remains unclear. Russian
officials claim that Turkey will have to purchase Russian grains “
at normal world prices.” Ankara, on the other
hand, hopes to continue buying both Russian and Ukrainian grains at
discounted prices.
Erdogan seems to have the upper hand
And yet, because Erdogan seems to have the upper hand, it’s conceivable
that Putin will have to accept Turkish conditions. Failure to do so could be
costly for Moscow.
For one, Ankara could effectively close the Bosporus and
Dardanelles straits to the Russian navy and civilian ships headed to Syria,
complicating Russia’s engagement in the Middle East country.
Russian energy companies involved in multibillion dollar projects
in Turkey could also be squeezed. Rosatom, which is building a nuclear power
plant in Turkey's southern Mersin province, and Gazprom, which seeks to turn
Turkey into a gas
hub,
would almost certainly pressure the Kremlin not to anger their Turkish
counterparts.
Barring that, Turkish authorities could follow the West and impose
sanctions on Russian oligarchs who have found
safe haven in their country.
Turkey and Ukraine might even start implementing a grain deal
without Russia’s participation, which would represent another humiliation for
Moscow. Under this scenario, Ukraine could simply continue exporting its grains
to Turkey, ignoring Russia’s threats. Along these lines, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky recently called on Erdogan and UN
Secretary General Antonio Guterres to
support grain shipments without Russian involvement.
Kyiv and Ankara understand that the Kremlin would unlikely dare
sink Ukrainian or Turkish civilian ships, as such an action could lead to
direct Turkish involvement in the Ukraine war. Thus, Ukraine and Turkey could
simply continue doing grain business as usual. However, if Moscow decides to
escalate, and really starts attacking ships going to or from Ukrainian ports,
Kyiv will
almost certainly respond. As a last resort, Turkey could even start supplying
Ukraine with weapons via the Black Sea route, which would represent another
blow to Putin and his war effort.
From the Russian perspective, Erdogan’s decision to send the men home was a slap in the face. If Russia had extended its participation in the grain deal, which uses Turkey as a transit hub, Putin would have looked even weaker, the thinking goes.
To avoid any of these outcomes, the Kremlin may have no choice but
to take Ankara’s steer. Its propaganda machine could always spin Moscow’s
policy as another “goodwill gesture,” with the goal of helping poor countries
in Africa. Erdogan might even insist that Moscow
continue sending free grain to nations such as Mali, Djibouti, Sudan, and Somalia –
places where Turkey has been trying to
increaseits influence.
The fact that Turkey’s combat drone producer Baykar has
begun
buildinga plant in Ukraine clearly indicates that Erdogan feels self-confident and does
not see Russia as a threat to its interests. Erdogan knows that if Turkey is at
the table, Putin’s room for political (and even military) maneuvering is
limited.
For now, Turkey is in the driver’s seat. Erdogan won’t hesitate to
push Putin to reach a new grain deal that saves Ankara money, and keeps the
world fed. Moscow’s move might appear strategic, but in reality, it is a
desperate ploy by a leader quickly running out of options.
Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses
mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with
special attention on energy and pipeline politics.
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