As expected, the publication of Tunisia’s proposed new constitution
has not defused political tensions or painted a clearer picture of where the
country is heading. Rather, the draft, to be submitted for national referendum
on July 25, has only hardened positions around President Kais Saied, who seems
unlikely to be distracted from the pursuit of his agenda.
اضافة اعلان
Despite issuing “corrections” to the constitutional
text, Saied has not managed to dispel critics’ concerns that the proposed
constitution would allow the president to concentrate virtually all executive
powers in his hands – with little to balance out his influence.
As written, the constitution gives the president
sole authority on appointing or dismissing the head of government and members
of Cabinet. Although the parliament could censure the government, the latter
remains accountable only to the president.
Furthermore, the president could continue to invoke
the constitution to exercise emergency powers whenever he determines that the
country faces an “imminent danger”. The head of state would also name the
members of the constitutional court and closely oversee the judiciary. Finally,
the Chamber of the People’s Deputies would share legislative duties with a
second chamber for “regions and provinces”. MPs would be subject to recall.
Concerns about obstructionism by the previous
parliament have now given way to fears of weakened legislative power.
Discussion of the new constitution has taken Tunisia
back to the acrimonious debates of the last decade about the place of religion
and identity in politics. Although Saied’s defenders say he is no advocate of
political Islam, modernist critics are concerned by the conservative ideas
reflected in the president’s constitution, which stipulates that “Tunisia is
part of the Islamic nation; and the state alone is entitled to work to achieve
the purposes of the noble Islam”.
Saied has tried to be reassuring by adding a caveat
in his corrected version that the state would act “under a democratic system”
in pursuit of such goals. But to his critics, this is not enough, as they
believe that the current text could pave the way for Saied or his successor to
bury any notion of a civil state.
Ironically, many Tunisians are equally worried about
what happens if the draft is defeated in the referendum, especially that the
president has not committed to resigning and holding early elections should his
constitution be rejected.
But a return to the system in place before Saied’s
assumption of emergency powers and suspension of parliament, in July 2021, is
virtually impossible.
Tunisia’s road ahead remains strewn with challenges besides those of Saied’s political roadmap. Not the least of these is the outcome of delicate negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which might compel the president to accept painful reforms that are at odds with his populist narratives.
The previous system has been largely discredited,
and the 2014 constitution is perceived as the source of the country’s political
and constitutional crises leading to economic decline. Saied has in fact
benefitted from the negatives associated with the past system.
This has left political parties opposed to Saied’s
recent move with few options as they have so far failed to draw large crowds to
their cause. Ennahda’s Islamists, long weakened by their internal splits and
ill-performance in government, are in particular struggling to reckon with
simmering public distrust and mounting legal woes. Trade unions have been
critical of Saied, but have steered away from any alliance with the opposition.
The resilience of grassroots support has in fact emboldened
Saied in his determination to continue his solitary pursuit of a reshaped
political system, with very little interaction with major political parties and
civil society organizations.
The constitution is widely expected to pass the test
of the referendum, paving the way for new elections in December, as most
opponents are not only deeply divided but are likely to abstain instead of
voting “no”. For now, the only uncertainty is the level of turnout for both
votes.
An unexpected endorsement for Saied’s plans came
earlier this month from Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who called on
Tunisians to come out “massively” for the constitution vote. The Algerian
leader’s position reflects regional and international wariness about
developments in Tunisia and their potential ripple effects.
In the process, Saied has demonstrated an ability to
adjust course as needed. Among the “corrections” Saied made to the draft
constitution was the removal of “public morals” from the list of possible
justifications for restrictions to civil liberties. He also told voters in a
televised address that he is not an aspiring autocrat.
By issuing modifications and by eschewing from the
start sensitive issues such as the criminalization of normalizing ties with
Israel (while including support for the Palestinian cause), Saied has preferred
to err on the side of caution.
Tunisia’s road ahead remains strewn with challenges
besides those of Saied’s political roadmap. Not the least of these is the
outcome of delicate negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which
might compel the president to accept painful reforms that are at odds with his
populist narratives.
But in meeting that challenge and others, Saied
cannot continue to shun substantial dialogue with key social and political
actors. His complacency with domestic support and outside de facto acceptance
of his moves may not be his best guide in steering the ship of state.
By assuming most levers of power, Saied is bound to
receive all the blame if and when anything goes wrong. The highest risk,
however, could stem from the ailing economy, which could further increase
hardships. That, coupled with continued polarization of the elite over the
president’s game plan, will add to uncertainties about Tunisia’s trajectory.
Solo navigation might seem like the prudent choice
for a leader intent on implementing his own vision for the future. But Saied’s
approach offers no insurance policy against mistakes in making decisions or
unexpected shifts in public mood as the country painfully struggles to find
safe harbor amid deepening divisions and mounting challenges.
Oussama Romdhani is the editor of The Arab Weekly. He previously served in the Tunisian
government and as a diplomat in Washington. ©Syndication Bureau.
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