Our economic and domestic conditions could have deteriorated significantly this year, had the government, together with state institutions, not moved quickly and effectively to deal with the regional conflict that erupted with Iran, whose economic and security repercussions reached the region and the entire world.
اضافة اعلان
We weren't spared the flames of war, nor its symptoms on our economy. But in the recurring reports of international organizations, the latest being the report by credit rating agency Moody's, an important sentence recurs that sums up our situation amid this unprecedented crisis: "The Jordanian economy has shown resilience despite Middle East tensions."
It wasn't easy for a country with this economic size, these resources, and such high external dependence, especially on energy sources, to maintain growth rates that are relatively advanced compared to the region's countries, with expectations of improved growth next year reaching 3%.
Amid a mood of pessimism about the future spreading across Middle Eastern countries, because of the ongoing war, disrupted energy supplies, and sharply declining revenues in the Arab Gulf states, indicators, the latest being the Ipsos global index, show that 64% of Jordanians expect the economic situation to improve over the next six months.
But taking this indicator alone, without the survey's other indicators, gives us an unrealistic optimism. The expectations and fears resulting from regional and domestic circumstances reveal troubling challenges for citizens and decision-makers alike. The survey shows the index of confidence in personal financial capacity dropped by more than three points.
The Moody's and Ipsos indicators arrive at an almost identical diagnosis of the challenges Jordan faces and what consumers, in the Ipsos study's term, describe as "worries."
Moody's says that increased energy costs resulting from the regional conflict are slowing the pace of fiscal consolidation and debt reduction. It summarizes the challenges in four: debt levels, modest growth, high unemployment and social pressures, and finally, a volatile geopolitical environment.
As for Jordanians' biggest worries according to Ipsos, they are unemployment at 56% of respondents, and inflation, "cost of living," in the view of 54%.
These conclusions recur in all local and international studies, surveys, and reports, and have for years. That is why all the economic modernization plans, the calendar of investment projects, and the governorate development programs have centered on improving the investment environment and education programs, to create higher economic growth and find job opportunities that keep pace with the continuous rise in labor market demand, and education outputs that match market needs.
We are on the right path in this area, but these are beginnings that came years late. And the challenge this time is doubled. The urgent need for a national response coincided with difficult regional circumstances. Rising energy prices alone left serious effects on the work of economic sectors, and yet Jordanian exports recorded a tangible rise this year, and high unemployment rates have begun to ease slightly, pending major projects that are supposed to provide thousands of jobs and move stagnant sectors.
The tangible improvement in the level of education, health, and public transport services has helped ease living burdens. But creative solutions should be considered to ease the high prices for people with limited incomes in the public and private sectors.
The government has exhausted whatever margin it had in the budget to improve the salaries of the neediest workers and retirees. What remains is for it to continue working and finding ways that help lower the prices of goods and services, because we apparently face an open regional crisis perhaps lasting for years to come, and what's most worrying in it are energy costs, likely to rise further.
Our internationally recognized resilience is an achievement without doubt, and it places heavy responsibilities upon us in the coming phase.
