The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global economic growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2027, compared with projected growth of 3.1% this year, supported by continued strong investment in artificial intelligence, which has helped cushion the impact of the energy price shock caused by the war in the Middle East, despite rising economic risks and widening disparities in economic performance.
اضافة اعلان
According to the World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, the IMF raised its forecast for real global GDP growth in 2026 to 3.1%, from 3.0% in its July forecast. The projection is unchanged from April but remains below the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025.
The IMF maintained its 2027 global growth forecast at 3.4% compared with its July estimate, representing an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast, despite energy market disruptions lasting longer than previously expected.
The report was issued alongside the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, amid the continuing war in the Middle East and oil prices rising above $100 a barrel.
The IMF said global economic activity performed better than expected during the first half of 2026 despite the impact of the war and trade tensions, driven by strong investment in AI and resilient economic activity in several major economies.
It noted that the surge in investment in AI infrastructure has boosted economic activity and supported international trade, prompting it to raise growth forecasts for some economies benefiting from technological expansion and related supply chains, including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand.
The redirection of energy supplies, increased production in other countries, withdrawals from inventories, the shift toward alternative energy sources and improved energy efficiency also helped limit the negative impact of the war on global growth.
IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts for 47% of Economies
Despite broadly stable global growth projections, the IMF lowered its forecasts for around 47% of economies compared with its April estimates, highlighting widening differences among countries in their ability to withstand the effects of the war and benefit from the technology investment boom.
The downward revisions included several energy-importing economies that are not closely linked to AI-related value chains and are facing higher import costs, exchange-rate pressures, declining real incomes and limited fiscal space.
By contrast, economies less exposed to the war and more closely linked to technology investment are benefiting from continued or improving economic activity, while energy-exporting countries outside the immediate conflict zone are gaining from improved terms of trade.
The IMF warned that these disparities could widen income gaps between and within countries, particularly in low-income economies that are more vulnerable to shocks.
Middle Eastern Economies Expected to Contract
Gulf economies affected by the war were among those facing some of the largest downward revisions to growth forecasts. The IMF expects Saudi Arabia’s economy to contract by 3.3% in 2026, compared with its previous July forecast of 1.7% growth.
It also expects Kuwait’s economy to contract by 16.7%, Iraq’s by 16%, Qatar’s by 15.6%, Iran’s by 7.6% and the UAE’s by 3.9% this year, amid the economic fallout from the war and disruptions to energy markets.
The forecasts reflect the varying impact of the war on energy-exporting and energy-importing economies. Some exporters outside the conflict zone may benefit from higher prices, while economies facing direct disruptions to energy production or exports are likely to suffer.
Risks to Global Growth from a Prolonged War
The IMF warned that a continuation or escalation of the war in the Middle East could keep energy and food prices elevated and volatile, renew inflationary pressures, worsen fiscal and external balances, and weaken economic growth.
The IMF’s baseline projections assume that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 and that shipping activity will return to pre-war levels by October of the same year. It expects average oil prices to reach $96 a barrel in 2026 and $87 in 2027.
Under a downside scenario in which the war escalates and oil prices rise to $130 a barrel through the first quarter of 2027, the IMF estimates that global growth would be 0.2 percentage points lower in 2026 and 0.5 percentage points lower in 2027 than under the baseline scenario.
The IMF also expects this scenario to raise global inflation in 2027 by an additional 1.1 percentage points to 5.2%.
The fund noted that commodity price increases resulting from actual supply disruptions have larger and more persistent economic effects than price increases driven solely by geopolitical risks.
Under the baseline scenario, the IMF expects global inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before falling to 4.1% in 2027, representing a cumulative upward revision of 0.7 percentage points, mainly due to higher energy and food prices.
The IMF said the pass-through from higher commodity prices to core inflation is expected to remain limited, although prolonged supply disruptions could increase price pressures.
AI Investment and Financial Risks
Despite the positive role of AI-related investment in supporting global economic activity, the IMF warned that the gains from the boom are concentrated among a limited number of companies, sectors and economies, increasing the dependence of growth on technological and financial conditions that could change rapidly.
It said a reassessment of expectations for AI profitability and potential productivity gains could trigger a sharp decline in investment, corrections in equity markets and tighter financial conditions, with spillovers to economies linked to technology supply chains.
Conversely, continued technological investment for a longer period, or faster-than-expected productivity gains, could push global growth above baseline projections.
The IMF expects the growth of global trade volumes to slow in 2026 before stabilizing in 2027, amid the impact of tariffs and changes in production chains, while technology-related trade remains strong.
The fund stressed that the medium-term growth outlook remains weak compared with historical levels, with disparities continuing among economies depending on their readiness to adopt AI and the resilience of their energy sources.
Economic Policy Challenges
The IMF stressed the need for governments to rebuild fiscal space amid high public debt levels and borrowing costs, and to adopt credible fiscal consolidation plans combining stronger revenues with more efficient spending.
It called for temporary and targeted support measures for groups most affected by higher energy and food prices, without undermining fiscal sustainability, while maintaining a focus on price stability in line with each country’s economic conditions.
The IMF emphasized that strengthening energy security, improving readiness to benefit from AI, diversifying trade relationships and maintaining international cooperation are key pillars for increasing economies’ ability to withstand shocks and achieve more sustainable growth.
