The scenarios of how the current Ukrainian crisis may go are
open and difficult to assess. Yet,
judging from the military behavior of the Russian army, the first State
of the Union address of US President Joe Biden, and the quick resort to
economic sanctions of extensive nature against Russia, one could venture to
guess what the possible and likely scenarios may be.
اضافة اعلان
The Russians will not occupy all of Ukraine. They may target
the areas of eastern Ukraine where a large Russian community lives. They may
not enter the capital, Kyiv, but will keep at striking and deterrent distance
from it.
If the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy opts for
continued fighting, his country may suffer a lot. So far, NATO will not put
boots on Ukrainian ground, and the Russian armed forces are not carrying out a
massive onslaught.
If the military operations are halted, the Russians and the
Ukrainians will engage in a bitter negotiation process. Short of accepting that
the Crimean Peninsula is Russian and at least granting the two
Russia-recognized separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk their autonomy, the
Ukrainian government will find a Russian side unwilling to budge.
On the other hand, the behavior of the Western media is not
likely to benefit the Ukrainians, and the “preemptive measures” have been used
by the Israeli governments and the George Bush Jr. administration to justify
attacking the Palestinian territories and Iraq with different degrees of success.
The Russians have deep-rooted strategic interests in Ukraine, and I doubt that a president like Vladimir Putin would succumb to
Western pressures to forgo them.
The process may end in lengthy peace talks between the two
countries. The most transparent results have already been made. Regardless of
negotiations, NATO members will seek ways to avenge themselves.
Two things may happen. One, Iran will be pressured to sign
the nuclear deal, thus aborting any possibility of creating a Central Asian coalition
of Muslim countries siding with Russia. By arriving at a deal with Iran, NATO
would alleviate the economic pressure on Iran and weaken Tehran’s resolve to
participate in anti-western alliances like, for example, a
Pakistani-Afghani-Iranian coalition.
If Iran thinks that the events in Ukraine serve it
positively, it may go for higher stakes at the Vienna-hosted nuclear
negotiations. Should that happen, NATO may look for other areas where they can
harass Russia and Iran.
This may leave Syria as an option. Disconnecting Russian
naval routes to the Mediterranean ports in Syria and attempts to force Russian
military presence out of Syria is risky. Jordan should be concerned about such
eventuality.
One can draw many pictures in the murky events of the Ukraine.
Certainty is the most obvious victim of such a complex situation. And questions
remain. Like, what would happen to projects passing through Syria, like
resumption of transit trade, supplying Lebanon with electricity and expanding
trade with Syria?
The writer is an economist and has held several ministerial posts, including former deputy prime minister and former chief of the Royal Court.
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