The recent Israeli operation against Gaza
can be seen from the perspective of Israel’s forthcoming elections. The
government of Prime Minister Yair Lapid is in desperate need to gain further
support ahead of the elections; he believes success in addressing security
concerns by preemptively targeting Gaza pleases the extreme Israeli right. This
well explains the timing of the latest Israeli operation, which coincided with
the invading of Al-Aqsa Mosque by extremist Israelis. These are the two major
issues that any right-wing government will focus on in the coming period.
اضافة اعلان
Under prime
minister Naftali Bennett, Israel witnessed domestic attacks that threatened
Israel’s domestic security. In the last months of Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule,
the so called “Al-Quds sword” battle took place. Lapid perhaps believes that he
will be on top of the list of candidates by addressing security issues,
especially now that Netanyahu’s chances to come back as prime minister are
increasing.
As such, Lapid’s
operation is meant to send Israeli voters the clear message that this
government is capable and determined to conduct any operation needed to
eliminate perceived sources of danger.
On the other hand,
it is crucial to keep this operation limited, given the negative political
impact any long war will have on the Israeli people who would feel more
threatened and endangered.
The latest
operation did not target all the resistance groups in Gaza. It targeted and
managed to eliminate the leaders of the pro-Iranian militia “Islamic Jihad”,
and is part of Israel’s efforts in recent years to target Iran and its allies.
… if this government promotes this act as part of its regional efforts to contain the risk originating from Iranian supported or pro-Iranian militias, this operation might well be the start of a series of operations that aim at limiting the Iranian influence and containing the risks Iran represents for various regional countries.
This also explains
the timing of this operation that took place at a time Iran is facing political
turmoil in Iraq and when Iran became a target in various locations.
As for the other
major protagonist of resistance in Gaza, Hamas, the timing of the operation
does not help it at all. Hamas, which also turned into a political movement, is
well aware of the fact that any battle with a destructive impact on Gaza and on
its people should be avoided at this critical time when the suffering and the
very difficult conditions in Gaza are causing the movement to lose popularity.
The recent
operation targeting Gaza is clearly only needed by the Israeli government.
However, if this government promotes this act as part of its regional efforts
to contain the risk originating from Iranian supported or pro-Iranian
militias, this operation might well be
the start of a series of operations that aim at limiting the Iranian influence
and containing the risks Iran represents for various regional countries.
The Israeli
operation against Gaza has given a clear political message, and eliminated the
leaders of the Islamic Jihad movement.
However, the most important aspect of this operation is making it appear
as part of the Iranian-Israeli proxy confrontation, the proxy war that has been
ongoing for years. Thus, one is tempted to believe that the aim of the
operation is Iran, not the Palestinian resistance per se.
Amer Al-Sabaileh is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and international
media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at international
conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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