During his recent five-day trip to Asia, US President Joe Biden
announced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a 12-country initiative
that will seek regulatory alignment. The aim is to deepen economic engagement
across four pillars — connected economy (data, labor, and environmental
standards), resilient economy (supply chains), clean economy (decarbonization),
and fair economy (tax and anti-money laundering).
اضافة اعلان
This initiative is a weak alternative to the
China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which was
launched in January. This is because the RCEP offers countries access to each
other’s markets whereas the IPEF does not. The largest carrot the US could
dangle in front of prevaricating countries to convince them to join an
American-led world order is by offering them access to its market. Yet the
toxic state of America’s domestic politics prevents this. And this is not just
going to affect the eventual success of the IPEF, but a whole host of other
American plans and commitments across the globe.
That the IPEF does not offer member countries access
to America’s market is no surprise. American protectionism is self-defeating.
The fact that there is bipartisan consensus over it does not suggest that the
issue has been thought through. Biden’s Democrats are petrified of a resurgent
Donald Trump using free trade as a political cudgel against the ruling party.
The Biden administration’s “Build Back Better” bill, which did not get
Congressional approval, incensed Canadian policymakers because its provisions
would harm Canada’s electric vehicle manufacturing industry. The bill was
eventually torpedoed by a senator from Biden’s own party. Yet the saga
demonstrated how an American foreign policy hobbled by its toxic politics could
not make exceptions for one of the country’s closest allies. This thinking also
colors the IPEF; it merely states the intention to begin negotiations on
aligning regulatory standards. It does not offer market access in the manner
that the RCEP does.
Except for the US, India, and Fiji, all other
members of the IPEF are also members of the RCEP. This suggests that even some
of America’s allies are hedging between America on the one hand and the
China-Russia axis on the other. The US-South Korea joint statement released at
the end of Biden’s trip to Seoul did not once mention China, likely due to
South Korea’s desire not to offend its largest trading partner.
One of the main reasons that the world’s countries
are hedging between the US and China is that America is unlikely to be a
reliable ally no matter who occupies the White House. Indeed, while Trump may
have walked the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Paris
Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, Joe Biden’s foreign policy has not been a
study in reliability either. Indeed, only a few months ago, the French foreign
minister denounced what he called “a stab in the back” by the US on the AUKUS
deal.
On Russia, there is little guarantee that the
current White House policy will hold should Trump regain the presidency in
2024; Trump has already called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “genius” move. On
the Iran nuclear deal too, the sticking point seems to be Tehran’s insistence
that Washington removes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from its
Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list, on which it was placed by the Trump
administration, despite advice at the time from US military officials that it
would be a counter-productive move. In the face of a likely shellacking for his
Democratic Party in midterm elections this November, the Biden administration
has demurred on the FTO issue. The delay in concluding the nuclear deal has led
to a situation where, even if a nuclear deal were to be concluded, the delay
has meant Iran is within striking distance of a nuclear bomb. This explains why
proxy warfare via drones between Iran and Israel has escalated in the past few
months and is likely to continue, deal or no deal.
America today is a prime example of how democracies
devour themselves. Ostensibly independent institutions like the judiciary are
now thoroughly politicized. The country’s political gridlock has prevented
meaningful action on domestic issues like gun control and immigration, while
politics remains animated by the never-ending culture wars over racism, LGBTQ
issues, and abortion. Foreign policy too suffers as the American Senate has yet
to confirm many important ambassadorial positions. It is telling that there are
still no confirmed ambassadors for India and ASEAN, countries that are meant to
be in the IPEF (India is also a Quad member). There is little coherence in an
American foreign policy that sanctions Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion
(RAB) for human rights abuses but refuses to sanction Israeli security forces
for its actions, such as the killing of a Palestinian-American American
journalist earlier this month.
America’s Build Back Better World program to counter
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has gone nowhere, while the American-brokered
“historic” global tax deal on multinationals has been delayed until 2024, due
to likely opposition in the US Congress. Because America continues to have such
an outsized influence on the world, its incoherence is making the world a less
safe and less prosperous place. Despite the IPEF announcement, America’s
closest friends and allies are right to hedge and plan accordingly.
The writer is a political analyst who focuses on the Middle East and South Asia. He
also consults on socio-economic development for government and private-sector
entities.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
Jordan News
.jpg)
.jpg)
